Temple vs. East Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where East Carolina gets at Temple: 19th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 131st at stuffing runs at the line. Temple projects no clear way in against East Carolina. East Carolina is also 56th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 118th.
How
ECUattacks
TEM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ECU#19 of 138TEM#131 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ECU#56 of 138TEM#118 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
ECU#44 of 138TEM#102 of 138
The two teams
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 131st at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
East Carolina
East Carolina is in year 3 under Blake Harrell. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 119th at hitting chunk plays.
East Carolina has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#19projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#119projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1465, TEM Elo 1293 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU -4.6 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TEM92nd105thECUECU115th88thTEMThrough the air
TEM129th121stECUECU97th100thTEMOn the ground
TEM41st116thECUECU124th46thTEMStaying on the field
TEM127th111thECUECU138th122ndTEMTaking care of it
TEM48th108thECUECU75th46thTEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 12–10 · East Carolina has won 5 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| TEM | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 (#87) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#93) |
| -2 / +3 | offense / defense | -6 / +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. East Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors East Carolina with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. East Carolina?
The model projects East Carolina by 4.6.
What time is Temple vs. East Carolina and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →