Fresno State vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Fresno State gets at Texas State: 59th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 121st at keeping everything in front of them. Where Texas State gets at Fresno State: 24th in the push up front, against a unit 87th at holding the line of scrimmage. Texas State is also 22nd at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 74th.
How
FRESattacks
TXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FRES#59 of 138TXST#121 of 138
HowTXSTattacksFRES
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TXST#24 of 138FRES#87 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
TXST#22 of 138FRES#74 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TXST#9 of 138FRES#46 of 138
The two teams
Fresno State
Fresno State is in year 2 under Matt Entz. The strengths are defensive, led by 27th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 113th at moving the ball on the ground, and they are 111th on first and second down.
Fresno State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#27projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#34projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#113projected
- Offensefirst and second down#111projected
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+6.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1433, FRES Elo 1585 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -4.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FRES63rd118thTXSTTXST98th115thFRESThrough the air
FRES85th134thTXSTTXST102nd127thFRESOn the ground
FRES113th99thTXSTTXST28th77thFRESStaying on the field
FRES104th117thTXSTTXST19th82ndFRESTaking care of it
FRES49th107thTXSTTXST133rd45thFRES
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FRES | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.3 (#115) | CORE overall | +6.5 (#46) |
| -8 / +4 | offense / defense | +8 / +2 |
| -0.44 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 3.89 | allowed / drive | 5.78 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 11% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Fresno State vs. Texas State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Fresno State vs. Texas State?
The model projects Texas State by 4.6.
What time is Fresno State vs. Texas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →