Texas State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Texas State gets at San Diego State: 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 94th at stuffing runs at the line. Where San Diego State gets at Texas State: 14th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 53rd at generating havoc.
How
TXSTattacks
SDSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
TXST#24 of 138SDSU#94 of 138
HowSDSUattacksTXST
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
SDSU#14 of 138TXST#53 of 138
The two teams
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+6.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
San Diego State
San Diego State runs it: Sean Lewis's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 8th at closing out passing downs. The way in is 120th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San Diego State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#8projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1469, TXST Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -8.6 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TXST98th65thSDSUSDSU123rd119thTXSTThrough the air
TXST102nd84thSDSUSDSU133rd134thTXSTOn the ground
TXST28th105thSDSUSDSU50th99thTXSTStaying on the field
TXST18th75thSDSUSDSU104th118thTXSTTaking care of it
TXST133rd22ndSDSUSDSU104th108thTXST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 (#46) | CORE overall | +8.6 (#38) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Texas State vs. San Diego State?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas State vs. San Diego State?
The model projects San Diego State by 8.6.
What time is Texas State vs. San Diego State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM ET, at Snapdragon Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →