Georgia vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 7.9 toward 
MISS
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  UGA −4.5 | MISS −3.4 |
| MISS win | 34% | 59% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Georgia gets at Ole Miss: 17th at running it, against a unit 74th at defending the run. Ole Miss projects no clear way in against Georgia. Georgia is also 22nd in the push up front, against a unit 75th.
HowUGAattacksMISS
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
UGA#17 of 138MISS#74 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UGA#22 of 138MISS#75 of 138
The two teams
Georgia
Georgia is in year 11 under Kirby Smart, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th on first and second down. The way in is 124th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −41.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensefirst and second down#4projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#6projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#124projected
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is in year 1 under Pete Golding. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying on schedule through the air.
Ole Miss has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1880, UGA Elo 1974 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -3.4 (59% to win) — 7.9 points clear of MISS's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UGA2nd116thMISSMISS42nd1stUGAThrough the air
UGA17th108thMISSMISS22nd6thUGAOn the ground
UGA15th104thMISSMISS94th10thUGAStaying on the field
UGA11th53rdMISSMISS94th80thUGATaking care of it
UGA49th107thMISSMISS77th22ndUGA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 34–15–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| UGA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#12) | CORE overall | +13.3 (#26) |
| +10 / -10 | offense / defense | +14 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Georgia vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 59% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 3.4.
What time is Georgia vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →