Clemson vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats


CLEMTeam statsLSU
- Q4 3:13CLEMDavid Eziomume 11 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)10–51
- Q4 6:43LSUPhillip Wright III 30 Yd pass from Landen Clark (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–51
- Q3 3:24LSUDilin Jones 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–44
- Q3 8:21LSUWinston Watkins Jr. 32 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–38
- Q2 1:10LSUSam Leavitt 13 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–31
- Q2 7:54LSUSam Leavitt 8 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–24
- Q1 2:07LSUJordan Ross 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–17
- Q1 3:36LSUDilin Jones 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–10
- Q1 10:16LSUScott Starzyk 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 13:28CLEMNolan Hauser 49 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 4.3
The whole preseason asked whether Leavitt's Lisfranc foot had healed; he answered with two right-side keepers, 113 rushing yards, and a Clemson offense that managed 48 snaps.
At 7:54 of the second quarter Sam Leavitt ran right for eight yards and a touchdown, planting on the foot Lisfranc surgery had closed his 2025 season to repair. At 1:10 he ran right again for 13. LSU led 31-3 at the break, and Lane Kiffin's debut ended 51-10. Leavitt finished with 113 rushing yards on 12 carries and two scores, and 230 passing yards on 28 attempts.
- PassChristopher Vizzina 10/16, 83 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJarvis Green 4 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecT.J. Moore 4 REC, 31 YDS
- PassSam Leavitt 16/28, 230 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSam Leavitt 12 CAR, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWinston Watkins Jr. 7 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:36LSU +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:07LSU +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 C.Vizzina pass intercepted by #29 J.Ross at CLEM30 QB hurried by #7 W.Weeks #29 J.Ross return 30 yards to the CLEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:28CLEM +7%
#81 N.Hauser field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD
- Q1 10:16LSU +6%
#80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. LSU?
Clemson 10, LSU 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| CLEM | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 145 | Total yards | 644 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 335 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 309 |
| 8 | First downs | 38 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 11-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/22 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-41 | Penalties | 6-75 |
| 23:51 | Possession | 36:09 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:57 CLEM punt on 4th & 3 at CLEM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:13CLEMDavid Eziomume 11 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)10–51
- Q4 6:43LSUPhillip Wright III 30 Yd pass from Landen Clark (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–51
- Q3 3:24LSUDilin Jones 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–44
- Q3 8:21LSUWinston Watkins Jr. 32 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–38
- Q2 1:10LSUSam Leavitt 13 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–31
- Q2 7:54LSUSam Leavitt 8 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–24
- Q1 2:07LSUJordan Ross 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–17
- Q1 3:36LSUDilin Jones 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)3–10
- Q1 10:16LSUScott Starzyk 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 13:28CLEMNolan Hauser 49 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1616, CLEM Elo 1670 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -9.6 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CLEM | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#108) | CORE overall | +27.8 (#4) |
| -10 / -0 | offense / defense | +5 / -22 |
| 0.25 | points / drive | 4.09 |
| 4.09 | allowed / drive | 0.25 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 9% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Sam Leavitt's surgically repaired foot ran for 113 yards
The whole preseason asked whether Leavitt's Lisfranc foot had healed; he answered with two right-side keepers, 113 rushing yards, and a Clemson offense that managed 48 snaps.
The preseason question about Sam Leavitt was his right foot
CBS Sports filed the premise as a headline: "Healthy again, LSU QB Sam Leavitt embraces Louisiana life ahead of 2026 opener." Leavitt in it: "I'm 100% right now." The Lisfranc injury came late in 2025 at Arizona State, cost him spring practice and needed an April procedure to remove pins. Audacy's WWL called the recovery one of the biggest storylines of the season, and On3 and And The Valley Shook filed health updates of their own.
Kiffin hedged at camp: "I don't think you'd think there was an injury" (Audacy). None of that coverage asked about his running. Tiger Rag's game story did the asking and the answering: Leavitt "often twisted, turned, cut on a dime and planted hard on that right foot," and on the eight-yard touchdown he "made a savage cut on his previously injured right foot." Leavitt: "It wasn't a thought process. That was off-season work."
Kiffin imported an offense and kept Brian Kelly's defense
Kiffin was hired on November 30, 2025, leaving Ole Miss at 11-1 and declining to coach the Rebels in the playoff (ESPN). Charlie Weis Jr. followed him as offensive coordinator and ran 95 snaps of no-huddle; Kiffin volunteered the credit, "Charlie Weis does an amazing job" (ESPN). He kept four of Kelly's defensive assistants and replaced Kelly's roster: 42 portal signings, more than double Kelly's record of 18 (Newsweek).
LSU converted 11 of 16 third downs, Clemson 2 of 13. The third-down column charges Leavitt with six and credits him four, without separating his throws from his carries; Landen Clark went 2 for 2, Dilin Jones 2 for 3 while running 23 times for 113 yards. Leavitt's third-and-5 at 8:21 of the third went deep left to Winston Watkins, 32 yards, touchdown. Watkins finished with 110 yards on seven catches.
Jordan Ross turned one third-and-6 into seven points
At 2:07 of the first quarter, on third-and-6, Whit Weeks hurried Christopher Vizzina and Jordan Ross intercepted at the Clemson 30, returning it 30 yards for a touchdown, about seven points of expected value on one snap. The play-by-play credits Weeks with the hurry and does not say whether Blake Baker, in his third season as LSU's coordinator, sent extra rushers or got there with four. Ross added a sack and two tackles for loss, Princewill Umanmielen 1.5 sacks, Dylan Carpenter a sack and Dashawn Spears a half-sack in a four-sack night.
The official box publishes no defensive rows, so those figures come from the play-by-play, whose "EPA denied" column prices only the snaps a defender made negative and does not price coverage at all. Neither expected-points column in this piece sits against a league distribution; both rank this night's players against each other. So Sammy Brown's 2.4 on four negative plays and Elliot Washington II's 0.3 on two, with three pass breakups, do not rank the two men.
Clemson's defense was stranded and beaten, not one or the other
Clemson ran 48 plays and sent its defense back out 13 times, against LSU's 12 drives. Three-and-outs ended 61.5 percent of those possessions, which averaged 11.9 yards; Gideon Davidson was stopped on all three of his third-down runs and gained 20 yards on seven carries. Field position was even, 72.9 yards from the end zone to 74.0. LSU still averaged 51.5 yards a drive and scored on 58.3 percent, so the front was beaten on the snaps it played.
Tom Allen, hired in January 2025 and in his second season, had called the 2025 breakdowns failures "in either communication or execution" (The Post and Courier). Brown described the same category: "We couldn't set an edge. I think we busted a few coverages" (Clemson Sports Talk). Both answer upward to two men rather than one. Nick Eason is associate head coach, co-defensive coordinator and defensive tackles; Chris Rumph is defensive run game coordinator and defensive ends (Clemson Athletics).
Swinney planned the quarterback split before kickoff
Cade Klubnik's eligibility ran out after 2025, so Clemson opened with a new starter. Swinney named Vizzina on September 1 and kept it narrow: "CV is just a little ahead. He's not a mile ahead," with Reynolds likely to play and "no package" for him (ESPN). Vizzina went 10 of 16 for 83 yards with the pick-six in his second start in four years; Tait Reynolds threw for 22 yards on six attempts, lost 9 rushing and went 0 for 4 on third down. Sixteen attempts against six separates nobody, and the co-starter listing for Georgia Southern continues that plan.
Swinney fired Garrett Riley on December 29 after a 7-6 season, Clemson's worst finish since 2010, and hired Chad Morris, his coordinator from 2011-14, on January 5 (Live 5 News, Clemson Athletics). ESPN's Roy Philpott promised in June that this offense would "run with pace, with tempo" (The Clemson Insider). The debut produced 54 first-half yards, minus-4 rushing and 0 for 8 on third down (ESPN), with Collin Sadler out at tackle. Sadler belongs to Matt Luke, assistant head coach and co-offensive coordinator, and to Vizzina's protection, not to Eason's interior.
Leavitt and Umanmielen are not evidence about the other 40
LSU's class was the largest in school history (Newsweek), and TigerNet counts 15 transfers in Clemson's 2026 cycle, 19 on the roster. Leavitt and Umanmielen arrived through the portal and produced the night's two biggest lines; Leavitt alone was responsible for 18 points. Jones, Watkins, Clark and Ross are not identified as transfers anywhere in the week's reporting, so the 42 cannot claim the 51 points. Kiffin at halftime: "Imagine if we'd used pro players" (ESPN).
Swinney's corner deserves its strongest form: 187-54 over 19 seasons, a 121-man roster built mostly out of high school, 26 of it walk-ons, and homegrown quarterbacks he declined to replace from the portal. "I'm not sitting around and judging other people [based on] what their resources are," he said (Sports Illustrated). What dents that is cost, not principle: LSU's package for Leavitt would balloon past $4 million (CBS Sports), and LSU still declined to add Dae'Quan Wright or Zxavian Harris after winning the injunction that let it.
Games since 2019 whose shape most resembles this one — matched on how close the margin was, how far the result ran from the spread, and how each offense performed against its own season norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
We had LSU by 9. The market closed between 10 and 10 and a half and read it better; this margin confirmed the prevailing expectation rather than upsetting it. Our portal input carried 1.4 points of that 9 and priced 42 signings against 15 too gently. North Carolina on September 19 tests it, with Burley back and Strong gone for the season, though one game cannot separate a bad input from a tail. Brown, afterward: "You can't let a loss define who you are. You can't let it defeat you. You've gotta let it develop you."
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
































