Colorado State vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsTEX
- Q4 10:10TEXArch Manning 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–52
- Q3 2:23TEXSilas Bolden 5 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Bert Auburn Kick)0–45
- Q3 6:47TEXJerrick Gibson 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:12TEXMatthew Golden 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:55TEXIsaiah Bond 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)0–24
- Q2 5:50TEXMatthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)0–17
- Q2 10:56TEXBert Auburn 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:36TEXQuintrevion Wisner 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 10/18, 59 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJustin Marshall 25 CAR, 106 YDS
- RecTory Horton 5 REC, 31 YDS
- PassQuinn Ewers 20/27, 260 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJerrick Gibson 10 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Wingo 4 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 100 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:36TEX +5%
Quintrevion Wisner 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Texas?
Colorado State 0, Texas 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| CSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 192 | Total yards | 545 |
| 74 | Passing yards | 355 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 11 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 3.1 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 29:17 | Possession | 30:43 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:22 CSU punt on 4th & 2 at CSU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:10TEXArch Manning 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–52
- Q3 2:23TEXSilas Bolden 5 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Bert Auburn Kick)0–45
- Q3 6:47TEXJerrick Gibson 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:12TEXMatthew Golden 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:55TEXIsaiah Bond 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)0–24
- Q2 5:50TEXMatthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)0–17
- Q2 10:56TEXBert Auburn 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:36TEXQuintrevion Wisner 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1850, CSU Elo 1350 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -22.4 (92% to win) — 12.6 points clear of CSU's market line of -35. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 (#86) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#5) |
| -3 / +2 | offense / defense | +10 / -19 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 2.74 |
| 2.16 | allowed / drive | 1.13 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →