Montana State vs. Montana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Montana State8-2
Montana9-1
▸Final
Washington-Grizzly StadiumConference game
MONTTeam statsMONT
280Total yards430
67Pass228
213Rush202
13First downs22
1-103rd down7-14
1Turnovers0
25:16Possession34:44
- Q4 6:50MONTNick Ostmo 64 Yd Run (Nico Ramos Kick)7–37
- Q3 0:03MONTNico Ramos 29 Yd Field Goal 7–30
- Q3 10:08MONTJunior Bergen 20 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Nico Ramos Kick)7–27
- Q3 12:59MONTTy McCullouch 19 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Casey Kautzman Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:00MONTNico Ramos 33 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 9:31MONTNico Ramos 40 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:21MONTClifton McDowell 4 Yd Run (Nico Ramos Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:50MONTEli Gillman 4 Yd Run (Nico Ramos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MONT −6.5
Against the number
MONT covered
line MONT −6.5
What the numbers say
- MONT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MONT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.8
- MONT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
Kickoff141 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MONT (top)MONT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%
Closing line
MONT −6.5
Closing total
52.5
Model line
—
Actual result
MONT 7 – 37 MONT
Montana State
- PassTommy Mellott 4/13, 67 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTommy Mellott 10 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecTaco Dowler 1 REC, 30 YDS
Montana
- PassClifton McDowell 17/22, 200 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNick Ostmo 7 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Bergen 6 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
30.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
119
Points / snap
0.37
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMONT up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 834 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
MONT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Montana State vs. Montana?
Montana State 7, Montana 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.
MONT
MONT
33%
Success rate
46%
-0.56
EPA / pass
0.27
0.13
EPA / rush
0.34
42%
Early-down success
45%
22%
Pass success
45%
38%
Rush success
47%
15%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
15%
Stuffed rush rate
16%
35%
Pass rate
43%
6.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
9.3
MONT
6.8 yards to go on 3rd down
52 scrimmage snaps
MONT
9.3 yards to go on 3rd down
67 scrimmage snaps
| MONT | MONT | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 430 |
| 67 | Passing yards | 228 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 13 | First downs | 22 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 4/16 | Comp/Att | 19/25 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-38 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 25:16 | Possession | 34:44 |
MONT
5/7 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
MONT
3/5 with the model
−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 9:59 MONT punt on 4th & 1 at MONT 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMONT 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 7/12 scoring drives
MONTTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
MONTTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
MONTMISS6 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1
MONTFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q1
MONTDOWNS7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q2
MONTPUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 27Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 6Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· opp 48Q2
MONTDOWNS4 pl, -5 yds· own 36Q2
MONTFG1 pl, 15 yds· opp 31Q2
MONTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MONTTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3
MONTDOWNS7 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3
MONTFG12 pl, 41 yds· own 48Q3
MONTDOWNS6 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q3
MONTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 36Q4
MONTINT5 pl, 42 yds· own 6Q4
MONTTD2 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4
MONTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 29Q4
MONTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q4
MONTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q4
MONTEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 39Q4
- Q4 6:50MONTNick Ostmo 64 Yd Run (Nico Ramos Kick)7–37
- Q3 0:03MONTNico Ramos 29 Yd Field Goal 7–30
- Q3 10:08MONTJunior Bergen 20 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Nico Ramos Kick)7–27
- Q3 12:59MONTTy McCullouch 19 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Casey Kautzman Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:00MONTNico Ramos 33 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 9:31MONTNico Ramos 40 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:21MONTClifton McDowell 4 Yd Run (Nico Ramos Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:50MONTEli Gillman 4 Yd Run (Nico Ramos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →