New Mexico vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsFRES
- Q4 3:25FRESDylan Lynch 44 Yd Field Goal 25–17
- Q4 8:57UNMCaleb Medford 33 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)25–14
- Q3 2:30UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–14
- Q2 2:19UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 50 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q2 6:08UNMLuke Drzewiecki 38 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 11:06FRESMalik Sherrod 6 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:05FRESLogan Fife 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:53UNMLuke Drzewiecki 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassDylan Hopkins 8/18, 124 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJacory Croskey-Merritt 21 CAR, 209 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaleb Medford 6 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLogan Fife 9/15, 137 YDS
- RushMalik Sherrod 13 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Moss 1 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,447 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:57UNM +49%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 33 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q3 2:30UNM +25%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 14:50UNM +11%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 20 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST down
- Q3 2:30FRES +9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 16 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST down
- Q4 8:50FRES +9%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete
- Q4 7:57UNM +9%
Devon Dampier run for 11 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Fresno State?
New Mexico 25, Fresno State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 528 | Total yards | 229 |
| 183 | Passing yards | 195 |
| 345 | Rushing yards | 34 |
| 26 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/21 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-100 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 39:05 | Possession | 20:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:55 FRES punt on 4th & 1 at FRES 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:25FRESDylan Lynch 44 Yd Field Goal 25–17
- Q4 8:57UNMCaleb Medford 33 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)25–14
- Q3 2:30UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–14
- Q2 2:19UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 50 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q2 6:08UNMLuke Drzewiecki 38 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 11:06FRESMalik Sherrod 6 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:05FRESLogan Fife 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:53UNMLuke Drzewiecki 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1647, UNM Elo 1016 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -27.6 (95% to win) — 4.6 points clear of FRES's market line of -23. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #5 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Fresno State leads 16–6 · 23% have been one-possession games
| UNM | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#101) | CORE overall | -3.7 (#81) |
| +4 / +15 | offense / defense | -3 / +1 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.66 |
| 3.45 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →