South Florida vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsUAB
- Q4 5:36USFMichael Brown-Stephens 2 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)35–56
- Q4 11:18USFNaiem Simmons 13 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)28–56
- Q4 13:15UABTejhaun Palmer 58 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)21–56
- Q3 3:29UABAmare Thomas 49 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)21–49
- Q3 5:44USFMichel Dukes 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)21–42
- Q3 11:13UABJermaine Brown Jr. 23 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)14–42
- Q2 0:27UABJermaine Brown Jr. 3 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)14–35
- Q2 12:23UABJermaine Brown Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)14–28
- Q1 0:00USFByrum Brown 14 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–21
- Q1 5:27UABJermaine Brown Jr. 21 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:32UABTejhaun Palmer 61 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q1 12:36UABBrandon Buckhaulter 75 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:35USFByrum Brown 60 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassByrum Brown 24/43, 260 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushByrum Brown 16 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSean Atkins 8 REC, 91 YDS
- PassJacob Zeno 19/25, 353 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushJermaine Brown Jr. 18 CAR, 116 YDS, 4 TD
- RecTejhaun Palmer 2 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 464 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:35USF +18%
Byrum Brown run for 60 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q1 12:36UAB +17%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 75 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
- Q1 7:32UAB +16%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 61 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
- Q2 12:23UAB +12%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
- Q1 0:00USF +12%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q1 5:27UAB +11%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. UAB?
South Florida 35, UAB 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UAB) was correct.
| USF | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 471 | Total yards | 608 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 355 |
| 211 | Rushing yards | 253 |
| 24 | First downs | 29 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 24/44 | Comp/Att | 20/29 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-86 | Penalties | 11-74 |
| 26:45 | Possession | 33:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:10 USF go for it on 4th & 11 at UAB 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.06 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:36USFMichael Brown-Stephens 2 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)35–56
- Q4 11:18USFNaiem Simmons 13 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)28–56
- Q4 13:15UABTejhaun Palmer 58 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)21–56
- Q3 3:29UABAmare Thomas 49 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)21–49
- Q3 5:44USFMichel Dukes 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)21–42
- Q3 11:13UABJermaine Brown Jr. 23 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)14–42
- Q2 0:27UABJermaine Brown Jr. 3 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)14–35
- Q2 12:23UABJermaine Brown Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)14–28
- Q1 0:00USFByrum Brown 14 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–21
- Q1 5:27UABJermaine Brown Jr. 21 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:32UABTejhaun Palmer 61 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q1 12:36UABBrandon Buckhaulter 75 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:35USFByrum Brown 60 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1414, USF Elo 1339 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -5.4 (65% to win) — 8.4 points clear of UAB's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #90 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| USF | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.8 (#94) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#86) |
| -1 / +6 | offense / defense | +6 / +11 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.46 | allowed / drive | 3.34 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →