William & Mary vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

William & Mary

▸0041

Charlotte0-1

0024

Final

Jerry Richardson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WILL	10	7	3	21	41
CLT	3	14	7	0	24

WILLTeam statsCLT

559Total yards379

256Pass248

303Rush131

25First downs22

3-113rd down7-15

0Turnovers0

32:05Possession27:55

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:38WILLMalachi Imoh 17 Yd Run (Ethan Chang Kick)41–24
• Q4 9:54WILLLachlan Pitts 65 Yd pass from Darius Wilson (Ethan Chang Kick)34–24
• Q4 12:31WILLBronson Yoder 1 Yd Run (Ethan Chang Kick)27–24
• Q3 2:18CLTXavier Williams 67 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)20–24
• Q3 4:30WILLEthan Chang 28 Yd Field Goal 20–17
• Q2 0:13CLTXavier Williams 2 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)17–17
• Q2 6:34CLTChaVon McEachern 3 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)17–10
• Q2 10:22WILLDonavyn Lester 22 Yd Run (Ethan Chang Kick)17–3
• Q1 4:28WILLTyler Rose 31 Yd pass from Darius Wilson (Ethan Chang Kick)10–3
• Q1 5:19CLTAntonio Zita 32 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 12:17WILLEthan Chang 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

CLT −4.5

Against the number

WILL covered

line CLT −4.5

What the numbers say

• CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 7.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CLT 100%50%WILL 100%

Kickoff149 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CLT (top)WILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CLT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CLT −4.5

Closing total

52.0

Model line

—

Actual result

WILL 41 – 24 CLT

consensus, liveCLT −4.5total 52.0

Leaders

William & Mary

• PassDarius Wilson 12/18, 237 YDS, 2 TD
• RushBronson Yoder 15 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
• RecLachlan Pitts 1 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD

Charlotte

• PassXavier Williams 12/23, 201 YDS
• RushXavier Williams 10 CAR, 48 YDS, 2 TD
• RecElijah Spencer 5 REC, 107 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

20.1sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

134

Points / snap

0.49

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WILL up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

53%

WILL went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LDavidson vs VMI7-12WNorth Alabama vs Chattanooga41-27WAlabama State vs Southern28-20WUCLA vs Coastal Carolina27-13LBoise State vs UCF22-24

Fourth downs

15 calls

WILL gave up 2.0 points to the model on fourth down.WILL 5/7 · CLT 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of William & Mary vs. Charlotte?

William & Mary 41, Charlotte 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked CLT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WILL

CLT

51%

Success rate

42%

0.66

EPA / pass

0.14

0.36

EPA / rush

0.19

54%

Early-down success

43%

59%

Pass success

35%

47%

Rush success

49%

21%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

33%

Pass rate

51%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.9

WILL

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

CLT

9.9 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WILL		CLT
559	Total yards	379
256	Passing yards	248
303	Rushing yards	131
25	First downs	22
3-11	3rd down	7-15
2-2	4th down	0-2
13/19	Comp/Att	17/31
13.5	Yards per pass	8.0
6.4	Yards per rush	3.5
0	Turnovers	0
7-80	Penalties	9-83
32:05	Possession	27:55

Fourth downs

15 calls

WILL

5/7 with the model

−2.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

CLT

6/7 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 11:04 WILL punt on 4th & 1 at WILL 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WILL 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CLT 3/11 scoring drives

WILLFG5 pl, 46 yds· own 35Q1

CLTFG16 pl, 50 yds· own 35Q1

WILLTD2 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

CLTUncateg7 pl, -6 yds· own 32Q1

WILLPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 5Q1

CLTMISS7 pl, 29 yds· own 38Q2

WILLTD5 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

CLTTD8 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

WILLMISS14 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q2

CLTTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

CLTDOWNS5 pl, 20 yds· own 44Q3

WILLPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 36Q3

CLTPUNT5 pl, 38 yds· own 15Q3

WILLFG11 pl, 69 yds· own 20Q3

CLTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

WILLTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

CLTPUNT3 pl, -19 yds· own 23Q4

WILLTD3 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

CLTPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 16Q4

WILLTD4 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q4

CLTDOWNS7 pl, 28 yds· own 23Q4

WILLUncateg10 pl, 44 yds· own 49Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:38WILLMalachi Imoh 17 Yd Run (Ethan Chang Kick)41–24
• Q4 9:54WILLLachlan Pitts 65 Yd pass from Darius Wilson (Ethan Chang Kick)34–24
• Q4 12:31WILLBronson Yoder 1 Yd Run (Ethan Chang Kick)27–24
• Q3 2:18CLTXavier Williams 67 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)20–24
• Q3 4:30WILLEthan Chang 28 Yd Field Goal 20–17
• Q2 0:13CLTXavier Williams 2 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)17–17
• Q2 6:34CLTChaVon McEachern 3 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)17–10
• Q2 10:22WILLDonavyn Lester 22 Yd Run (Ethan Chang Kick)17–3
• Q1 4:28WILLTyler Rose 31 Yd pass from Darius Wilson (Ethan Chang Kick)10–3
• Q1 5:19CLTAntonio Zita 32 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 12:17WILLEthan Chang 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

William & Mary were +4.5 — a 39% shot

#56 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #85 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.

The 2022 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →