Duke vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsMIA
- Q4 5:16DUKEBrandon Johnson 29 Yd Interception Return (Todd Pelino Kick)45–21
- Q4 10:12DUKEJordan Waters 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)38–21
- Q4 14:06DUKERiley Leonard 11 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)31–21
- Q3 3:38DUKENicky Dalmolin 2 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)24–21
- Q3 13:06MIAWill Mallory 34 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Andres Borregales Kick)17–21
- Q3 14:09MIAColbie Young 71 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Andres Borregales Kick)17–14
- Q2 6:53DUKETodd Pelino 28 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 12:01DUKERiley Leonard 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:45DUKERiley Leonard 9 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:28MIAColbie Young 7 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRiley Leonard 13/25, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJaquez Moore 6 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecEli Pancol 3 REC, 39 YDS
- PassJake Garcia 13/21, 198 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushHenry Parrish Jr. 11 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecColbie Young 6 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:38DUKE +30%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q4 14:06DUKE +29%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q3 14:09MIA +24%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 71 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q3 13:06MIA +21%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 34 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q2 12:01DUKE +20%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 13:45DUKE +15%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Miami?
Duke 45, Miami 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 327 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 48 |
| 14 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 32:26 | Possession | 27:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:15 DUKE punt on 4th & 1 at DUKE 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:16DUKEBrandon Johnson 29 Yd Interception Return (Todd Pelino Kick)45–21
- Q4 10:12DUKEJordan Waters 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)38–21
- Q4 14:06DUKERiley Leonard 11 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)31–21
- Q3 3:38DUKENicky Dalmolin 2 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)24–21
- Q3 13:06MIAWill Mallory 34 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Andres Borregales Kick)17–21
- Q3 14:09MIAColbie Young 71 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Andres Borregales Kick)17–14
- Q2 6:53DUKETodd Pelino 28 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 12:01DUKERiley Leonard 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:45DUKERiley Leonard 9 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:28MIAColbie Young 7 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1530, DUKE Elo 1346 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -9.8 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #58 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Miami leads 16–5 · 19% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.1 (#46) | CORE overall | -2.3 (#73) |
| +7 / +2 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 2.78 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →