San José State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 1:33SJSUNick Nash 14 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)28–17
- Q4 11:10SJSUTyler Nevens 3 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)21–17
- Q4 14:30SDSUGreg Bell 5 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)14–17
- Q3 2:26SJSUBailey Gaither 3 Yd pass from Nick Nash (Matt Mercurio Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:35SJSUDerrick Deese Jr. 4 Yd pass from Nick Nash (Matt Mercurio Kick)7–10
- Q2 8:53SDSUCarson Baker 1 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:17SDSUMatt Araiza 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassNick Nash 16/25, 169 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushNick Nash 11 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDerrick Deese Jr. 5 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarson Baker 21/30, 261 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGreg Bell 25 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJesse Matthews 6 REC, 139 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:10SJSU +39%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q3 2:26SJSU +32%
Nick Nash pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q4 14:30SDSU +31%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
- Q4 5:59SJSU +27%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 34
- Q2 0:35SJSU +14%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q4 1:33SJSU +11%
Nick Nash run for 14 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. San Diego State?
San José State 28, San Diego State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SJSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 298 | Total yards | 362 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 261 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 16 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 18/28 | Comp/Att | 21/30 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 23:52 | Possession | 36:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:10 SJSU punt on 4th & 1 at SJSU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:33SJSUNick Nash 14 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)28–17
- Q4 11:10SJSUTyler Nevens 3 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)21–17
- Q4 14:30SDSUGreg Bell 5 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)14–17
- Q3 2:26SJSUBailey Gaither 3 Yd pass from Nick Nash (Matt Mercurio Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:35SJSUDerrick Deese Jr. 4 Yd pass from Nick Nash (Matt Mercurio Kick)7–10
- Q2 8:53SDSUCarson Baker 1 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:17SDSUMatt Araiza 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1676, SJSU Elo 1425 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -12.4 (80% to win) — 2.4 points clear of SDSU's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #34 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →San Diego State leads 23–11–2 · 22% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.0 (#36) | CORE overall | +9.1 (#33) |
| +3 / -5 | offense / defense | -9 / -18 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 1.18 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →