Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 3:30MTSUJayy McDonald 92 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)17–50
- Q4 13:05MTSUTerelle West 37 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–43
- Q3 3:26MTSUAsher O'Hara 2 Yd Run (Crews Holt PAT failed)17–37
- Q3 6:26MTSUTerelle West 2 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)17–31
- Q3 10:30MTSUCrews Holt 30 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 12:07MTSUAsher O'Hara 6 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:06FIUJose Borregales 33 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 7:28FIUMaurice Alexander 23 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:18MTSUJimmy Marshall 5 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:50MTSUTerelle West 1 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:00FIUTony Gaiter IV 18 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJames Morgan 16/32, 208 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAnthony Jones 21 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecMaurice Alexander 5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAsher O'Hara 6/12, 25 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAsher O'Hara 22 CAR, 159 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJimmy Marshall 2 REC, 11 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:07MTSU +26%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
- Q1 0:18MTSU +22%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 5 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
- Q2 7:28FIU +22%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 23 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q3 6:26MTSU +19%
Terelle West run for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
- Q1 1:50MTSU +18%
Terelle West run for 1 yd for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
- Q1 5:00FIU +17%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 18 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee?
Florida International 17, Middle Tennessee 50.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 496 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 25 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 471 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 6/12 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 2.1 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 8.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 7-51 |
| 27:22 | Possession | 32:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:09 MTSU punt on 4th & 1 at MTSU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:30MTSUJayy McDonald 92 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)17–50
- Q4 13:05MTSUTerelle West 37 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–43
- Q3 3:26MTSUAsher O'Hara 2 Yd Run (Crews Holt PAT failed)17–37
- Q3 6:26MTSUTerelle West 2 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)17–31
- Q3 10:30MTSUCrews Holt 30 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 12:07MTSUAsher O'Hara 6 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:06FIUJose Borregales 33 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 7:28FIUMaurice Alexander 23 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:18MTSUJimmy Marshall 5 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:50MTSUTerelle West 1 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:00FIUTony Gaiter IV 18 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1320, FIU Elo 1491 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +4.4 (39% to win) — 3.4 points clear of FIU's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #102 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Middle Tennessee leads 14–7 · Florida International has won 2 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| FIU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.6 (#71) | CORE overall | -7.8 (#92) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +3 / +11 |
| 2.22 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 2.53 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →