Hawai'i vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsCSU
- Q4 0:44HAWRyan Meskell 35 Yd Field Goal 43–34
- Q4 4:42CSUIzzy Matthews 9 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)40–34
- Q4 6:42HAWRyan Meskell 30 Yd Field Goal 40–27
- Q4 8:15CSUPreston Williams 26 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)37–27
- Q3 0:08CSUOlabisi Johnson 58 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–20
- Q3 2:20CSUPreston Williams 7 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)37–14
- Q3 3:35HAWCedric Byrd 55 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)37–7
- Q3 8:48HAWJohn Ursua 19 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)30–7
- Q2 0:28HAWCole McDonald 6 Yd Run (Ryan Meskell Kick)23–7
- Q2 11:32HAWCole McDonald 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–7
- Q1 1:18HAWRyan Meskell 21 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:26CSUOlabisi Johnson 10 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:02HAWJohn Ursua 4 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HAW did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassCole McDonald 26/37, 418 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCole McDonald 13 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCedric Byrd II 11 REC, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- PassK.J. Carta-Samuels 34/50, 537 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushIzzy Matthews 15 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecPreston Williams 9 REC, 188 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:28HAW +28%
Cole McDonald run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
- Q4 4:42HAW +21%
Fred Holly III run for 21 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST down
- Q4 4:42CSU +19%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q2 11:32HAW +19%
Cole McDonald run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q1 10:02HAW +16%
Cole McDonald pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
- Q4 6:42HAW +15%
Ryan Meskell 30 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Colorado State?
Hawai'i 43, Colorado State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 617 | Total yards | 653 |
| 418 | Passing yards | 537 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 30 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 26/37 | Comp/Att | 34/51 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-65 | Penalties | 12-120 |
| 34:43 | Possession | 25:17 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:18 HAW field goal on 4th & 3 at CSU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:44HAWRyan Meskell 35 Yd Field Goal 43–34
- Q4 4:42CSUIzzy Matthews 9 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)40–34
- Q4 6:42HAWRyan Meskell 30 Yd Field Goal 40–27
- Q4 8:15CSUPreston Williams 26 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)37–27
- Q3 0:08CSUOlabisi Johnson 58 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–20
- Q3 2:20CSUPreston Williams 7 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)37–14
- Q3 3:35HAWCedric Byrd 55 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)37–7
- Q3 8:48HAWJohn Ursua 19 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)30–7
- Q2 0:28HAWCole McDonald 6 Yd Run (Ryan Meskell Kick)23–7
- Q2 11:32HAWCole McDonald 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–7
- Q1 1:18HAWRyan Meskell 21 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:26CSUOlabisi Johnson 10 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:02HAWJohn Ursua 4 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1529, HAW Elo 1217 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -14.9 (84% to win) — 2.1 points clear of HAW's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #8 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Colorado State leads 16–13 · Hawai'i has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| HAW | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.2 (#99) | CORE overall | -12.9 (#105) |
| +2 / +13 | offense / defense | -3 / +10 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 1.61 |
| 2.89 | allowed / drive | 2.84 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →