Liberty vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsBAY
- Q4 5:00BAYJohn Lovett 34 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)48–45
- Q4 6:12LIBSpencer Jones 26 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)48–38
- Q4 10:39BAYJohn Lovett 3 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)41–38
- Q4 12:11LIBStephen Calvert 8 Yd Run (Alex Probert Kick)41–31
- Q3 0:24LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 13 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)34–31
- Q3 5:37BAYChris Platt 75 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Connor Martin Kick)27–31
- Q3 5:48LIBAlex Probert 31 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 13:31BAYChris Platt 20 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Connor Martin Kick)24–24
- Q3 13:53LIBChris Turner 32 Yd Interception Return (Alex Probert Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:12BAYConnor Martin 39 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 5:17LIBAlex Probert 33 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 9:38BAYJaMycal Hasty 14 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:38LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 40 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Mitchell Lewis Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–7
- Q2 13:59BAYDenzel Mims 45 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Connor Martin Kick)6–7
- Q1 2:35LIBAlex Probert 41 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:27LIBAlex Probert 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BAY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassStephen Calvert 44/60, 447 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCarrington Mosley 28 CAR, 122 YDS
- RecAntonio Gandy-Golden 13 REC, 192 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAnu Solomon 14/29, 278 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushAnu Solomon 6 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecChris Platt 3 REC, 102 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:39BAY +37%
John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
- Q4 5:00BAY +36%
John Lovett run for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
- Q3 5:37BAY +35%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Chris Platt for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
- Q3 0:24LIB +33%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
- Q4 6:12LIB +32%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Spencer Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
- Q4 2:44LIB +32%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Marquis Fitzgerald for 8 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Baylor?
Liberty 48, Baylor 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LIB | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 585 | Total yards | 532 |
| 447 | Passing yards | 278 |
| 138 | Rushing yards | 254 |
| 31 | First downs | 22 |
| 15-24 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 44/60 | Comp/Att | 14/30 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-95 | Penalties | 7-61 |
| 38:16 | Possession | 21:44 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:31 LIB punt on 4th & 7 at BAY 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:00BAYJohn Lovett 34 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)48–45
- Q4 6:12LIBSpencer Jones 26 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)48–38
- Q4 10:39BAYJohn Lovett 3 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)41–38
- Q4 12:11LIBStephen Calvert 8 Yd Run (Alex Probert Kick)41–31
- Q3 0:24LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 13 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)34–31
- Q3 5:37BAYChris Platt 75 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Connor Martin Kick)27–31
- Q3 5:48LIBAlex Probert 31 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 13:31BAYChris Platt 20 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Connor Martin Kick)24–24
- Q3 13:53LIBChris Turner 32 Yd Interception Return (Alex Probert Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:12BAYConnor Martin 39 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 5:17LIBAlex Probert 33 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 9:38BAYJaMycal Hasty 14 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:38LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 40 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Mitchell Lewis Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–7
- Q2 13:59BAYDenzel Mims 45 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Connor Martin Kick)6–7
- Q1 2:35LIBAlex Probert 41 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:27LIBAlex Probert 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1571, LIB Elo 1401 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -9.2 (74% to win) — 23.8 points clear of LIB's market line of -33. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #3 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →