Auburn vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 6:33AUBDaniel Carlson 31 Yd Field Goal 26–10
- Q4 13:39AUBDaniel Carlson 21 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 2:23TA&MSpeedy Noil 2 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick)20–10
- Q3 7:56AUBDaniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q3 12:29AUBDaniel Carlson 35 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 13:40AUBJovon Robinson 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:42AUBMarcus Davis 9 Yd pass from Jeremy Johnson (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:25TA&MTaylor Bertolet 50 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJeremy Johnson 13/17, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJovon Robinson 27 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKerryon Johnson 3 REC, 43 YDS
- PassKyler Murray 13/23, 105 YDS, 3 INT
- RushTra Carson 21 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecChristian Kirk 7 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:40AUB +20%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
- Q1 6:42AUB +19%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
- Q3 2:23TA&M +12%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 2 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)
- Q3 2:00AUB +11%
Peyton Barber run for 15 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST down
- Q4 13:39AUB +8%
Daniel Carlson 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:29AUB +7%
Daniel Carlson 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Texas A&M?
Auburn 26, Texas A&M 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TA&M, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AUB | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 443 | Total yards | 303 |
| 132 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 311 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 13/17 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-78 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 33:57 | Possession | 26:03 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:33 AUB field goal on 4th & 1 at TA&M 14. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:33AUBDaniel Carlson 31 Yd Field Goal 26–10
- Q4 13:39AUBDaniel Carlson 21 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 2:23TA&MSpeedy Noil 2 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick)20–10
- Q3 7:56AUBDaniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q3 12:29AUBDaniel Carlson 35 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 13:40AUBJovon Robinson 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:42AUBMarcus Davis 9 Yd pass from Jeremy Johnson (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:25TA&MTaylor Bertolet 50 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1721, AUB Elo 1649 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -5.3 (65% to win) — 2.2 points clear of AUB's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #50 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #51 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Texas A&M leads 9–7 · 44% have been one-possession games
| AUB | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.3 (#40) | CORE overall | +6.0 (#49) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | -3 / -9 |
| 2.30 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →