Iowa State vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsKU
- Q4 13:13KUMatthew Wyman 37 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q3 2:49KUMichael Cummings 1 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)14–31
- Q3 13:53ISUD'Vario Montgomery 35 Yd pass from Grant Rohach (Cole Netten Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:13ISUE.J. Bibbs 3 Yd pass from Grant Rohach (Cole Netten Kick)7–24
- Q2 5:25KUTony Pierson 6 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)0–24
- Q1 0:41KUMatthew Wyman 35 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:24KUJimmay Mundine 20 Yd pass from Michael Cummings (Matthew Wyman Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:21KUCorey Avery 14 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ISU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassGrant Rohach 25/50, 275 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAaron Wimberly 15 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecD'Vario Montgomery 8 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMichael Cummings 24/40, 278 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCorey Avery 17 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNigel King 5 REC, 101 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:21KU +19%
Corey Avery run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
- Q1 4:24KU +19%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
- Q3 13:53ISU +18%
Grant Rohach pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 35 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
- Q3 2:49KU +15%
Michael Cummings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
- Q2 5:25KU +11%
Tony Pierson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
- Q2 1:13ISU +8%
Grant Rohach pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Kansas?
Iowa State 14, Kansas 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ISU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 514 |
| 275 | Passing yards | 286 |
| 98 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 22 | First downs | 29 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 11-20 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 25/50 | Comp/Att | 26/43 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-26 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 22:16 | Possession | 37:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:48 KU go for it on 4th & 11 at ISU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:13KUMatthew Wyman 37 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q3 2:49KUMichael Cummings 1 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)14–31
- Q3 13:53ISUD'Vario Montgomery 35 Yd pass from Grant Rohach (Cole Netten Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:13ISUE.J. Bibbs 3 Yd pass from Grant Rohach (Cole Netten Kick)7–24
- Q2 5:25KUTony Pierson 6 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)0–24
- Q1 0:41KUMatthew Wyman 35 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:24KUJimmay Mundine 20 Yd pass from Michael Cummings (Matthew Wyman Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:21KUCorey Avery 14 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1177, ISU Elo 1392 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +6.2 (35% to win) — 3.7 points clear of ISU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #77 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Kansas leads 52–46–6 · 35% have been one-possession games
| ISU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 2.51 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 40% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →