Wake Forest vs. California Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Wake Forest gets at California: 46th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 134th at stuffing runs at the line. California projects no clear way in against Wake Forest. Wake Forest is also 53rd at running it, against a unit 134th.
How
WAKEattacks
CAL
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 22% this season, 2 games
WAKE12.7%#46 of 138CAL12.9%#134 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 21% this season, 2 games
WAKE+0.25#53 of 138CAL+0.32#134 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 49% this season, 2 games
WAKE1.39#14 of 138CAL1.34#75 of 138
The two teams
Wake Forest
Wake Forest throws it: Jake Dickert's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Wake Forest has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line27.6%#3 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.01#7 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.39#14 of 138
California
California is in year 1 under Tosh Lupoi. The strengths are defensive, led by 31st at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 134th at stuffing runs at the line.
California has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air33%#31 of 138
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.32#134 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.9%#134 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.11#131 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1353, WAKE Elo 1513 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL -4.7 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WAKE30th121stCALCAL129th68thWAKEThrough the air
WAKE31st114thCALCAL63rd107thWAKEOn the ground
WAKE45th122ndCALCAL126th91stWAKEStaying on the field
WAKE49th117thCALCAL67th123rdWAKETaking care of it
WAKE1st22ndCALCAL75th108thWAKE
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WAKE | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#31) | CORE overall | -9.4 (#106) |
| +4 / -8 | offense / defense | -3 / +6 |
| 3.70 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.70 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Wake Forest vs. California?
Gridpex's model favors California with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Wake Forest vs. California?
The model projects California by 4.7.
What time is Wake Forest vs. California and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at California Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →