UTSA vs. Rice Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UTSA gets at Rice: 17th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 138th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Rice gets at UTSA: 89th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 128th at keeping everything in front of them. UTSA is also 23rd at throwing it, against a unit 123rd.
How
UTSAattacks
RICE
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTSA#17 of 138RICE#138 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
UTSA#23 of 138RICE#123 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
UTSA#24 of 138RICE#114 of 138
HowRICEattacksUTSA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
RICE#89 of 138UTSA#128 of 138
The two teams
UTSA
UTSA is in year 7 under Jeff Traylor, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#128projected
Rice
Rice is in year 2 under Scott Abell. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 133rd at staying on schedule through the air.
Rice has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#138projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#133projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1107, UTSA Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +9.2 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UTSA32nd110thRICERICE122nd97thUTSAThrough the air
UTSA42nd99thRICERICE138th90thUTSAOn the ground
UTSA43rd87thRICERICE12th134thUTSAStaying on the field
UTSA129th106thRICERICE56th114thUTSATaking care of it
UTSA1st107thRICERICE105th9thUTSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUTSA leads 9–4 · 31% have been one-possession games
| UTSA | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.7 (#52) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#120) |
| +3 / -2 | offense / defense | -10 / +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UTSA vs. Rice?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTSA vs. Rice?
The model projects UTSA by 9.2.
What time is UTSA vs. Rice and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Rice Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →