Texas Tech vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Texas Tech gets at Baylor: 38th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 106th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Baylor gets at Texas Tech: 75th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 135th at keeping everything in front of them. Texas Tech is also 10th at running it, against a unit 54th.
How
TTUattacks
BAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 23% this season, 2 games
TTU15.7%#38 of 138BAY23.5%#106 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 22% this season, 2 games
TTU+0.17#10 of 138BAY-0.15#54 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · 22% this season, 2 games
TTU52%#17 of 138BAY35%#55 of 138
HowBAYattacksTTU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 52% this season, 2 games
BAY1.23#75 of 138TTU1.78#135 of 138
The two teams
Texas Tech
Texas Tech throws it: Joey McGuire's offenses have been pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 1st at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. The way in is 135th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+10.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −13.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas Tech has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Strengths
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air32%#1 of 138
- Defenserunning it-0.15#1 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down27%#1 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.78#135 of 138
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 106th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#17 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line23.5%#106 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, TTU Elo 1871 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY +25.4 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TTU94th22ndBAYBAY107th69thTTUThrough the air
TTU58th43rdBAYBAY20th120thTTUOn the ground
TTU73rd33rdBAYBAY69th18thTTUStaying on the field
TTU47th99thBAYBAY82nd53rdTTUTaking care of it
TTU49th22ndBAYBAY124th75thTTU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBaylor leads 42–40–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| TTU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.2 (#15) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#33) |
| +4 / -15 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Texas Tech vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Texas Tech with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas Tech vs. Baylor?
The model projects Texas Tech by 25.4.
What time is Texas Tech vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →