South Alabama vs. Louisiana Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where South Alabama gets at Louisiana: 46th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 128th at generating havoc. Where Louisiana gets at South Alabama: 22nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 136th at keeping everything in front of them. South Alabama is also 29th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 107th.
How
USAattacks
UL
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 24% this season, 2 games
USA13.6%#46 of 138UL13.1%#128 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 25% this season, 2 games
USA13.8%#29 of 138UL20.6%#107 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
USA4.15#60 of 138UL5.25#131 of 138
HowULattacksUSA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 41% this season, 1 game
UL1.49#22 of 138USA1.85#136 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
UL+0.40#51 of 138USA+0.11#104 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
UL+0.37#90 of 138USA+0.56#125 of 138
The two teams
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 29th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 136th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 125th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#29 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#136 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#125 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#104 of 138
Louisiana
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 22nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 133rd at defending the pass, and they are 132nd on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.49#22 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensethrowing it+0.57#133 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down49%#132 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground46%#131 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1387, USA Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -6.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USA99th77thULUL33rd132ndUSAThrough the air
USA71st71stULUL75th65thUSAOn the ground
USA35th89thULUL45th82ndUSAStaying on the field
USA32nd138thULUL104th48thUSATaking care of it
USA1st9thULUL75th76thUSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 10–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| USA | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.8 (#84) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#94) |
| -0 / +5 | offense / defense | -1 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win South Alabama vs. Louisiana?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Alabama vs. Louisiana?
The model projects Louisiana by 6.6.
What time is South Alabama vs. Louisiana and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Cajun Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →