SMU vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 5.1 toward 
SMU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  ND −17.5 | ND −12.4 |
| ND win | 89% | 79% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where SMU gets at Notre Dame: 19th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 83rd at keeping everything in front of them. Where Notre Dame gets at SMU: 4th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 48th at closing out passing downs. Notre Dame is also 5th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 44th.
HowSMUattacksND
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SMU#19 of 138ND#83 of 138
HowNDattacksSMU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ND#4 of 138SMU#48 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
ND#5 of 138SMU#44 of 138
The two teams
SMU
SMU throws it: Rhett Lashlee's offenses have been pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
SMU has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#11projected
- Offensethrowing it#17projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#18projected
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2110, SMU Elo 1728 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -12.4 (79% to win) — 5.1 points clear of SMU's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SMU3rd19thNDND45th39thSMUThrough the air
SMU1st23rdNDND26th33rdSMUOn the ground
SMU106th13thNDND114th83rdSMUStaying on the field
SMU19th34thNDND45th2ndSMUTaking care of it
SMU104th5thNDND1st46thSMU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SMU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#16) | CORE overall | +26.4 (#6) |
| +11 / -7 | offense / defense | +14 / -13 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 3.78 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 0.67 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win SMU vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for SMU vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 12.4.
What time is SMU vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ET, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →