Michigan StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MICH 1786
PSU 1954
Projected spread
MICH +3.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
61% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
39%
MICH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MICH Elo 1786, PSU Elo 1954) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH +3.8 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelPSU 61% · MICH 39%
Pick: PSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
PSU2025 season · national rank shownMICH
362.086th
Total yards / game
397.958th5.861st
Yards / play
6.2Key matchups · Pro
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge PSU.
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge MICH.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win Penn State vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Penn State vs. Michigan?
The model projects Penn State by 3.8.
What time is Penn State vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Michigan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Penn State at 61% to win, projecting Penn State by 3.8.