Ross-Ade Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PUR 1227
ND 2243
Projected spread
PUR +32.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
99% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
1%
PUR (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PUR Elo 1227, ND Elo 2243) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR +32.7 (1% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelND 99% · PUR 1%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
ND2025 season · national rank shownPUR
459.512th
Total yards / game
343.6102nd7.52nd
Yards / play
5.3Key matchups · Pro
- PUR rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ND rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge PUR.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. PUR rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. PUR pass defense (0.40 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. Purdue?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. Purdue?
The model projects Notre Dame by 32.7.
What time is Notre Dame vs. Purdue and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 99% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 32.7.