Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Notre Dame gets at Purdue: 10th on first and second down, against a unit 132nd on early downs defensively. Purdue projects no clear way in against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is also 4th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 125th.
How
NDattacks
PUR
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
ND#10 of 138PUR#132 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
ND#4 of 138PUR#125 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
ND#5 of 138PUR#120 of 138
The two teams
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
Purdue
Purdue is in year 2 under Barry Odom, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd on early downs defensively, and they are 125th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −40.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Purdue has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#125projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1321, ND Elo 2110 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +19.1 (11% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ND45th113thPURPUR60th19thNDThrough the air
ND26th93rdPURPUR12th23rdNDOn the ground
ND114th77thPURPUR81st13thNDStaying on the field
ND45th84thPURPUR26th34thNDTaking care of it
ND1st107thPURPUR1st5thND
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 61–26–2 · Notre Dame has won 10 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| ND | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.4 (#6) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#78) |
| +14 / -13 | offense / defense | -1 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. Purdue?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. Purdue?
The model projects Notre Dame by 19.1.
What time is Notre Dame vs. Purdue and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →