Florida Atlantic vs. UL Monroe Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida Atlantic gets at UL Monroe: 4th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 124th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UL Monroe gets at Florida Atlantic: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 109th at keeping everything in front of them. Florida Atlantic is also 40th at throwing it, against a unit 112th.
How
FAUattacks
ULM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FAU#4 of 138ULM#124 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
FAU#40 of 138ULM#112 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
FAU#46 of 138ULM#109 of 138
HowULMattacksFAU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ULM#7 of 138FAU#109 of 138
The two teams
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#126projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#126projected
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 128th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#130projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1076, FAU Elo 1212 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +10.2 (26% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FAU121st138thULMULM132nd134thFAUThrough the air
FAU14th69thULMULM136th110thFAUOn the ground
FAU132nd112thULMULM135th137thFAUStaying on the field
FAU21st112thULMULM133rd89thFAUTaking care of it
FAU75th127thULMULM1st46thFAU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUL Monroe leads 7–2 · UL Monroe has won 4 straight · 78% have been one-possession games
| FAU | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.1 (#119) | CORE overall | -24.8 (#138) |
| -2 / +10 | offense / defense | -11 / +14 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 1.08 |
| 6.00 | allowed / drive | 5.17 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 58% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. UL Monroe?
Gridpex's model favors Florida Atlantic with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. UL Monroe?
The model projects Florida Atlantic by 10.2.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. UL Monroe and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Malone Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →