Duke vs. NC State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Duke gets at NC State: 37th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 137th at keeping everything in front of them. Where NC State gets at Duke: 9th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 123rd at keeping everything in front of them. NC State is also 17th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 117th.
How
DUKEattacks
NCSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
DUKE#37 of 138NCSU#137 of 138
HowNCSUattacksDUKE
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
NCSU#9 of 138DUKE#123 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
NCSU#17 of 138DUKE#117 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
NCSU#22 of 138DUKE#119 of 138
The two teams
Duke
Duke throws it: Manny Diaz's offenses have been pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 24th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 123rd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −22.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Duke has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#123projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#119projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#117projected
NC State
NC State throws it: Dave Doeren's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
NC State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#17projected
- Offensethrowing it#18projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1506, DUKE Elo 1615 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -5.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
DUKE90th44thNCSUNCSU20th74thDUKEThrough the air
DUKE113th8thNCSUNCSU95th103rdDUKEOn the ground
DUKE37th96thNCSUNCSU18th31stDUKEStaying on the field
DUKE90th9thNCSUNCSU25th44thDUKETaking care of it
DUKE21st75thNCSUNCSU77th75thDUKE
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesDuke leads 44–37–5 · Duke has won 3 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.6 (#53) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#75) |
| -1 / -5 | offense / defense | -1 / +1 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 0.64 |
| 0.25 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 55% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Duke vs. NC State?
Gridpex's model favors NC State with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Duke vs. NC State?
The model projects NC State by 5.4.
What time is Duke vs. NC State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Carter-Finley Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →