Snapdragon StadiumClosing line: WSU +-17 · SDSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 29 |
| SDSU | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 26 |
Team stats
WSUthis game · better side highlightedSDSU
375
Total yards
414257
Passing yards
284118
Rushing yards
13022
First downs
215-12 · 42%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1344
WSU 1608
Projected spread
SDSU +8.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
73% to win
Market spread
SDSU +17
sportsbook line
Model edge
SDSU
8.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
27%
SDSU · market 16%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1344, WSU Elo 1608) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +8.2 (27% to win) — 8.8 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of +17.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SDSU (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SDSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- SDSU rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge WSU.
- SDSU pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge WSU.
- WSU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 5/11 scoring drives
WSUTD7 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q0
SDSUPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 14Q1
WSUTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,965 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
SDSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. San Diego State?
Washington State 29, San Diego State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.