Washington State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 5:03WSUJohn Mateer 2 Yd Run (John Mateer Pass to Kris Hutson for Two-Point Conversion)29–26
- Q4 12:08WSUCarlos Hernandez 34 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)21–26
- Q4 13:39SDSUMarquez Cooper 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–26
- Q3 7:05SDSUNate Bennett 27 Yd pass from Jordan Napier (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–19
- Q2 0:17SDSUMarquez Cooper 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q2 7:19WSUJohn Mateer 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–6
- Q1 0:00SDSUGabriel Plascencia 28 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 8:54SDSUGabriel Plascencia 46 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:26WSUCooper Mathers 26 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJohn Mateer 19/27, 257 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJohn Mateer 21 CAR, 42 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKyle Williams 5 REC, 74 YDS
- PassDanny O'Neil 22/34, 195 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMarquez Cooper 18 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJa'Shaun Poke 10 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,965 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:03WSU +58%
John Mateer 2 Yd Run (John Mateer Pass to Kris Hutson for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 7:05SDSU +28%
Jordan Napier pass complete to Nate Bennett for 27 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
- Q4 12:08WSU +28%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 34 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q4 2:00WSU +23%
Wayshawn Parker run for 2 yds to the WSU 25
- Q4 13:39SDSU +22%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
- Q4 4:51SDSU +18%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds to the SDSU 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. San Diego State?
Washington State 29, San Diego State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
| WSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 414 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 284 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/27 | Comp/Att | 28/41 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 8-78 |
| 30:27 | Possession | 29:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:49 SDSU punt on 4th & 3 at SDSU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:03WSUJohn Mateer 2 Yd Run (John Mateer Pass to Kris Hutson for Two-Point Conversion)29–26
- Q4 12:08WSUCarlos Hernandez 34 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)21–26
- Q4 13:39SDSUMarquez Cooper 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–26
- Q3 7:05SDSUNate Bennett 27 Yd pass from Jordan Napier (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–19
- Q2 0:17SDSUMarquez Cooper 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q2 7:19WSUJohn Mateer 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–6
- Q1 0:00SDSUGabriel Plascencia 28 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 8:54SDSUGabriel Plascencia 46 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:26WSUCooper Mathers 26 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1344, WSU Elo 1608 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +8.2 (30% to win) — 8.8 points clear of SDSU's market line of +17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.8 (#77) | CORE overall | -23.9 (#128) |
| +4 / +7 | offense / defense | -15 / +9 |
| 3.07 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →