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Kyle Williams
Kyle Williams

#2Kyle Williams

WR·Washington State·2024

Kyle Williams is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Washington State. Kyle's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 81 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kyle Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
70 Receptions1193 Rec yards14 Rec TD17.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume29
  • Explosiveness67
  • Consistency80
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.21 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Portland State.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.210−3.21Wk 1 vs Portland State: +3.21 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Texas Tech: +0.54 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Washington: +0.87 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs San José State: +1.79 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Boise State: +1.16 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Fresno State: +0.04 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Hawai'i: +0.26 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs San Diego State: +1.07 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Utah State: +1.35 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs New Mexico: +2.02 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Oregon State: +1.18 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Wyoming: +1.09 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsPortland StateW70-30—414135.32593.21
2vsTexas TechW37-164.312121.01210.54
3vsWashingtonW24-193.13227.30110.87
4vsSan José StateW54-52-5.5813817.31321.79
5@Boise StateL24-4510.1914215.81361.16
7@Fresno StateW25-17-3.833411.30180.04
8vsHawai'iW42-10-10.945914.80350.26
9@San Diego StateW29-26-15.457414.80331.07
11vsUtah StateW49-28-10.455511.03171.35
12@New MexicoL35-38-14.8918120.13432.02
13@Oregon StateL38-41-6.759519.01571.18
14vsWyomingL14-15-13.645914.81371.09
20vsSyracuseL35-525.51017217.2166—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
10.0%
Passing plays
17.7%
Rushing plays
2.5%
Standard downs
10.6%
Passing downs
8.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.09
Passing downs
1.44
Pass / Rush EPA
1.34 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.