Virginia vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsND
- Q4 0:18UVATony Muskett 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)14–35
- Q3 7:52UVATony Muskett 18 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–35
- Q3 9:38NDJeremiyah Love 76 Yd Run (Zac Yoakam Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:49NDMitchell Evans 16 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–28
- Q2 2:20NDCooper Flanagan 2 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–21
- Q2 6:34NDJayden Harrison 8 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:04NDJeremiyah Love 4 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ND played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UVA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.5 vs 3rd & 7.4
- PassTony Muskett 9/14, 103 YDS
- RushXavier Brown 11 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecMalachi Fields 4 REC, 81 YDS
- PassRiley Leonard 22/33, 214 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeremiyah Love 16 CAR, 137 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJayden Harrison 3 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 462 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Notre Dame?
Virginia 14, Notre Dame 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| UVA | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total yards | 448 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 214 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 234 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 17/36 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 9-89 |
| 25:20 | Possession | 34:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:19 ND go for it on 4th & 6 at ND 27. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.56 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:18UVATony Muskett 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)14–35
- Q3 7:52UVATony Muskett 18 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–35
- Q3 9:38NDJeremiyah Love 76 Yd Run (Zac Yoakam Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:49NDMitchell Evans 16 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–28
- Q2 2:20NDCooper Flanagan 2 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–21
- Q2 6:34NDJayden Harrison 8 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:04NDJeremiyah Love 4 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2133, UVA Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -32.5 (97% to win) — 11.5 points clear of ND's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UVA | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#107) | CORE overall | +31.5 (#2) |
| -6 / +6 | offense / defense | +12 / -19 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 3.19 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →