Utah State vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsTEM
- Q4 3:22TEMEvan Simon 1 Yd Run (Maddux Trujillo Kick)29–45
- Q4 3:55USUJack Hestera 28 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Spencer Petras Pass to Kyrese White for Two-Point Conversion)29–38
- Q4 6:02TEMPeter Clarke 2 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)21–38
- Q4 11:57TEMDaniel Evert 16 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)21–31
- Q3 4:10TEMDante Wright 91 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:00TEMMaddux Trujillo 64 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 0:17USURahsul Faison 20 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:10TEMAntwain Littleton 17 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:50TEMAntonio Jones 32 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:19USUJalen Royals 26 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:30USUHerschel Turner 4 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassSpencer Petras 26/44, 293 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 27 CAR, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Royals 10 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassEvan Simon 17/27, 271 YDS, 5 TD
- RushEvan Simon 11 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDante Wright 3 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,454 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:10TEM +30%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 91 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
- Q4 11:57TEM +25%
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 16 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
- Q2 1:10TEM +22%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 17 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
- Q2 0:17USU +21%
Rahsul Faison run for 20 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
- Q2 14:30USU +18%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
- Q2 7:50TEM +14%
Antonio Jones 32 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. Temple?
Utah State 29, Temple 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 479 | Total yards | 451 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 180 |
| 26 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/44 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 5-33 |
| 29:02 | Possession | 30:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:23 USU punt on 4th & 17 at TEM 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:22TEMEvan Simon 1 Yd Run (Maddux Trujillo Kick)29–45
- Q4 3:55USUJack Hestera 28 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Spencer Petras Pass to Kyrese White for Two-Point Conversion)29–38
- Q4 6:02TEMPeter Clarke 2 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)21–38
- Q4 11:57TEMDaniel Evert 16 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)21–31
- Q3 4:10TEMDante Wright 91 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:00TEMMaddux Trujillo 64 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 0:17USURahsul Faison 20 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:10TEMAntwain Littleton 17 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:50TEMAntonio Jones 32 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Maddux Trujillo Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:19USUJalen Royals 26 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:30USUHerschel Turner 4 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1092, USU Elo 1242 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +3.6 (42% to win) — 2.9 points clear of TEM's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #71 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| USU | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#105) | CORE overall | -22.5 (#127) |
| +1 / +12 | offense / defense | -19 / +4 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 2.45 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →