Northern Illinois vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsNCSU
- Q4 14:46NIUKanon Woodill 50 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 11:46NCSUKevin Concepcion 3 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:45NIUCam Thompson 6 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)14–17
- Q2 4:55NCSUKanoah Vinesett 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 14:09NCSUDK Kaufman 2 Yd Fumble Return (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:23NIUBrock Lampe 0 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:15NCSUCJ Bailey 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NCSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NIU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 6.8
- PassEthan Hampton 14/29, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAntario Brown 28 CAR, 114 YDS
- RecAndrew McElroy 3 REC, 58 YDS
- PassCJ Bailey 13/20, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCJ Bailey 10 CAR, 22 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Rogers 2 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:45NIU +20%
Cam Thompson 6 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)
- Q3 11:46NCSU +19%
Kevin Concepcion 3 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
- Q2 14:09NCSU +19%
DK Kaufman 2 Yd Fumble Return (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
- Q1 2:23NIU +18%
Brock Lampe 0 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)
- Q1 6:15NCSU +17%
CJ Bailey 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
- Q4 5:17NCSU +13%
CJ Bailey pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. NC State?
Northern Illinois 17, NC State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
| NIU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 279 | Total yards | 171 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 109 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 62 |
| 20 | First downs | 11 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-56 | Penalties | 6-46 |
| 32:41 | Possession | 27:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:55 NCSU field goal on 4th & 1 at NIU 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:46NIUKanon Woodill 50 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 11:46NCSUKevin Concepcion 3 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:45NIUCam Thompson 6 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)14–17
- Q2 4:55NCSUKanoah Vinesett 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 14:09NCSUDK Kaufman 2 Yd Fumble Return (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:23NIUBrock Lampe 0 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:15NCSUCJ Bailey 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1478, NIU Elo 1464 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -3 (59% to win) — 4.0 points clear of NIU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.6 (#50) | CORE overall | +1.7 (#62) |
| -2 / -7 | offense / defense | +5 / +3 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 1.66 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →