Murray State vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Murray State
Missouri
▸Final
Memorial Stadium
MURRTeam statsMIZ
85Total yards489
27Pass310
58Rush179
5First downs30
4-153rd down8-13
2Turnovers1
26:46Possession33:14
- Q4 1:57MIZBlake Craig 27 Yd Field Goal 0–51
- Q4 13:34MIZBlake Craig 22 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 7:09MIZJamal Roberts 2 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–45
- Q3 8:50MIZBlake Craig 39 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q2 0:01MIZBrady Cook 3 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–35
- Q1 3:38MIZMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–28
- Q1 9:41MIZToriano Pride Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Blake Craig Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:48MIZNate Noel 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:42MIZLuther Burden III 16 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MIZ −50.5
Against the number
MIZ covered
line MIZ −50.5
Kickoff151 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MIZ (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MIZ 100%
Closing line
MIZ −50.5
Closing total
62.5
Model line
—
Actual result
MURR 0 – 51 MIZ
Murray State
- PassJayden Johannsen 7/13, 27 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJawaun Northington 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecJoshua Crabtree 2 REC, 14 YDS
Missouri
- PassBrady Cook 20/31, 228 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNate Noel 11 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLuther Burden III 4 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
27.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
129
Points / snap
0.40
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 101 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MIZ went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Murray State vs. Missouri?
Murray State 0, Missouri 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
MURR
MIZ
24%
Success rate
56%
-0.75
EPA / pass
0.35
-0.21
EPA / rush
0.28
24%
Early-down success
55%
24%
Pass success
51%
24%
Rush success
61%
2%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
36%
Stuffed rush rate
11%
34%
Pass rate
52%
5.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.4
MURR
5.7 yards to go on 3rd down
50 scrimmage snaps
MIZ
5.4 yards to go on 3rd down
79 scrimmage snaps
| MURR | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | Total yards | 489 |
| 27 | Passing yards | 310 |
| 58 | Rushing yards | 179 |
| 5 | First downs | 30 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 7/15 | Comp/Att | 30/42 |
| 1.8 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 7-44 |
| 26:46 | Possession | 33:14 |
MURR
6/9 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
MIZ
3/4 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 5:42 MURR punt on 4th & 2 at MURR 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMURR 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MIZ 8/11 scoring drives
MIZTD6 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q1
MURRDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
MIZTD3 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q1
MURRTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
MURRPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
MIZTD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
MURRPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1
MIZFUM5 pl, 24 yds· own 41Q1
MURRPUNT2 pl, 1 yds· own 40Q2
MIZPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q2
MURRPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q2
MIZPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 30Q2
MURRPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 10Q2
MIZTD14 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2
MURREND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
MURRPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 35Q3
MIZFG9 pl, 76 yds· own 2Q3
MURRFUM3 pl, -15 yds· own 25Q3
MIZTD2 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q3
MURRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
MIZFG14 pl, 76 yds· own 19Q3
MURRPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q4
MIZFG12 pl, 84 yds· own 7Q4
MURREND6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 1:57MIZBlake Craig 27 Yd Field Goal 0–51
- Q4 13:34MIZBlake Craig 22 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 7:09MIZJamal Roberts 2 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–45
- Q3 8:50MIZBlake Craig 39 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q2 0:01MIZBrady Cook 3 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–35
- Q1 3:38MIZMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–28
- Q1 9:41MIZToriano Pride Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Blake Craig Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:48MIZNate Noel 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:42MIZLuther Burden III 16 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →