Mercyhurst vs. Howard: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Mercyhurst1-0

0031

Howard0-1

▸0032

Final

William H. Greene Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MERC	3	0	7	21	31
HOWA	0	14	7	11	32

MERCTeam statsHOWA

334Total yards421

225Pass164

109Rush257

24First downs25

3-93rd down4-13

2Turnovers1

26:55Possession33:05

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:02HOWADylan West 37 Yd Field Goal 31–32
• Q4 0:41HOWAKaleb Gallop Defensive PAT Conversion31–29
• Q4 0:41MERCCameron Barmore 22 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki PAT blocked)31–27
• Q4 5:12MERCCameron Barmore 13 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)25–27
• Q4 9:48HOWAJarett Hunter 1 Yd Run (Dylan West PAT failed)18–27
• Q4 14:59MERCRylan Davison 8 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Adam Urena Pass to Rylan Davison for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
• Q3 4:18MERCAyron Rodriguez 2 Yd Run (Nathan Nagucki Kick)10–21
• Q3 8:51HOWANathanial Clark 11 Yd pass from Ja'Shawn Scroggins (Dylan West Kick)3–21
• Q2 1:07HOWAJarett Hunter 7 Yd Run (Dylan West Kick)3–14
• Q2 7:25HOWAJarett Hunter 11 Yd Run (Dylan West Kick)3–7
• Q1 5:44MERCNathan Nagucki 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0

What the numbers say

• MERC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOWA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 7.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

HOWA 100%50%MERC 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

HOWA (top)MERC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HOWA 100%

Leaders

Mercyhurst

• PassAdam Urena 23/34, 225 YDS, 2 TD
• RushBrian Trobel 4 CAR, 64 YDS
• RecChaz Davis 3 REC, 55 YDS

Howard

• PassJa'Shawn Scroggins 11/22, 164 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJarett Hunter 27 CAR, 126 YDS, 3 TD
• RecIsiah Williams 2 REC, 44 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

133

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

HOWA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,141 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

HOWA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUAlbany vs Fordham34-13WIowa vs Utah State24-14WDelaware vs Stony Brook37-13WTexas State vs Baylor42-31WKentucky vs Eastern Kentucky28-17

Fourth downs

13 calls

MERC gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.MERC 4/5 · HOWA 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Mercyhurst vs. Howard?

Mercyhurst 31, Howard 32.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (HOWA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MERC

HOWA

41%

Success rate

44%

0.36

EPA / pass

0.16

0.24

EPA / rush

0.19

41%

Early-down success

46%

39%

Pass success

39%

46%

Rush success

47%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

23%

65%

Pass rate

33%

10.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.2

MERC

10.6 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

HOWA

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MERC		HOWA
334	Total yards	421
225	Passing yards	164
109	Rushing yards	257
24	First downs	25
3-9	3rd down	4-13
1-2	4th down	2-2
23/34	Comp/Att	11/22
6.6	Yards per pass	7.5
4.0	Yards per rush	5.4
2	Turnovers	1
3-5	Penalties	10-107
26:55	Possession	33:05

Fourth downs

13 calls

MERC

4/5 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

HOWA

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 5:44 MERC field goal on 4th & 4 at HOWA 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MERC 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →HOWA 5/12 scoring drives

HOWAFUM7 pl, 58 yds· own 30Q1

MERCFG14 pl, 94 yds· own 2Q1

HOWAMISS9 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q1

MERCPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q1

MERCFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 11Q2

HOWATD11 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2

HOWAMISS4 pl, -7 yds· opp 11Q2

MERCPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q2

HOWATD9 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2

MERCDOWNS4 pl, 3 yds· own 47Q2

HOWAEND3 pl, 1 yds· midfieldQ2

MERCTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MERCPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 37Q3

HOWATD9 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

HOWAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 26Q3

MERCTD5 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

HOWAPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 18Q4

MERCFUM2 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4

HOWATD6 pl, 26 yds· opp 26Q4

MERCTD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4

HOWAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

MERCTD8 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4

HOWAFG5 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:02HOWADylan West 37 Yd Field Goal 31–32
• Q4 0:41HOWAKaleb Gallop Defensive PAT Conversion31–29
• Q4 0:41MERCCameron Barmore 22 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki PAT blocked)31–27
• Q4 5:12MERCCameron Barmore 13 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)25–27
• Q4 9:48HOWAJarett Hunter 1 Yd Run (Dylan West PAT failed)18–27
• Q4 14:59MERCRylan Davison 8 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Adam Urena Pass to Rylan Davison for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
• Q3 4:18MERCAyron Rodriguez 2 Yd Run (Nathan Nagucki Kick)10–21
• Q3 8:51HOWANathanial Clark 11 Yd pass from Ja'Shawn Scroggins (Dylan West Kick)3–21
• Q2 1:07HOWAJarett Hunter 7 Yd Run (Dylan West Kick)3–14
• Q2 7:25HOWAJarett Hunter 11 Yd Run (Dylan West Kick)3–7
• Q1 5:44MERCNathan Nagucki 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →