Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Lincoln (CA)0-9

Mercyhurst2-7

▸

Final

Saxon Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LINC	0	0	0	0	0
MERC	14	32	7	13	66

LINCTeam statsMERC

214Total yards502

181Pass248

33Rush254

12First downs26

3-83rd down5-10

8Turnovers0

23:57Possession36:03

Q4 3:22MERCEthen Knox 29 Yd Run (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–66
Q4 9:49MERCAustin Urena 29 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Nathan Nagucki PAT failed)0–59
Q3 2:50MERCJoe Kerbacher 14 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–53
Q2 0:40MERCMike Pappas 8 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Chaz Davis Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–46
Q2 4:45MERCRylan Davison 61 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–38
Q2 7:28MERCJonathan Askew 2 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–31
Q2 8:02MERCCameron Barmore 21 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–24
Q2 11:06MERCNathan Nagucki 26 Yd Field Goal 0–17
Q1 1:10MERCMike Pappas 3 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–14
Q1 12:15MERCCameron Barmore 28 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

LINC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 33% success rate

Kickoff127 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MERC (top)LINC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MERC 100%

Lincoln (CA)

PassJack Clavel 11/30, 181 YDS, 7 INT
RushRashaan Woodland 12 CAR, 32 YDS
RecTrey Dimmings 4 REC, 81 YDS

Mercyhurst

PassAdam Urena 16/18, 215 YDS, 6 TD
RushEthen Knox 7 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
RecCam Barmore 5 REC, 87 YDS, 2 TD

30.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

116

Points / snap

0.57

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MERC up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 46 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MERC went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3 WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3 WNorthern Arizona vs Lincoln (CA)66-6 WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3 WNorth Alabama vs Utah Tech60-14

FAQ

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst?

Lincoln (CA) 0, Mercyhurst 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MERC) was correct.

LINC

MERC

33%

Success rate

56%

-0.25

EPA / pass

0.91

-0.31

EPA / rush

0.24

33%

Early-down success

56%

37%

Pass success

54%

24%

Rush success

57%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

67%

Pass rate

38%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

LINC

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

MERC

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

LINC		MERC
214	Total yards	502
181	Passing yards	248
33	Rushing yards	254
12	First downs	26
3-8	3rd down	5-10
0-1	4th down	2-2
11/30	Comp/Att	18/24
6.0	Yards per pass	10.3
1.8	Yards per rush	6.5
8	Turnovers	0
7-47	Penalties	8-90
23:57	Possession	36:03

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

LINCTeam statsMERC

Scoring plays

What the numbers say

Win probability

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst: Final Score & Recap

LINCTeam statsMERC

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?