Fresno State vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 0:31FRESDylan Lynch 42 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q4 1:38UCLAJ.Michael Sturdivant 2 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–20
- Q3 11:43UCLAT.J. Harden 5 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–13
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 48 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 7:29FRESRaylen Sharpe 7 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–6
- Q2 12:51UCLAMateen Bhaghani 40 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 4:36UCLAMateen Bhaghani 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMikey Keene 30/43, 219 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBryson Donelson 6 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecMac Dalena 7 REC, 47 YDS
- PassEthan Garbers 26/40, 289 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAnthony Frias II 13 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecMoliki Matavao 8 REC, 120 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,454 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:43UCLA +26%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
- Q2 7:29FRES +21%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q4 7:07UCLA +18%
Ethan Garbers run for 9 yds to the UCLA 45
- Q4 8:48FRES +15%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete
- Q4 12:39UCLA +12%
Anthony Frias II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 11
- Q2 0:00FRES +11%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. UCLA?
Fresno State 13, UCLA 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCLA) was correct.
| FRES | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 281 | Total yards | 363 |
| 219 | Passing yards | 289 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 74 |
| 15 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 30/45 | Comp/Att | 26/40 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 22:46 | Possession | 37:14 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:27 FRES punt on 4th & 1 at FRES 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31FRESDylan Lynch 42 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q4 1:38UCLAJ.Michael Sturdivant 2 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–20
- Q3 11:43UCLAT.J. Harden 5 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–13
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 48 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 7:29FRESRaylen Sharpe 7 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–6
- Q2 12:51UCLAMateen Bhaghani 40 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 4:36UCLAMateen Bhaghani 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1476, FRES Elo 1511 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -1 (54% to win) — 6.5 points clear of FRES's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUCLA leads 6–4 · 50% have been one-possession games
| FRES | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#64) | CORE overall | +7.2 (#41) |
| -7 / -8 | offense / defense | +1 / -6 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →