Villanova vs. North Carolina A&T: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Villanova0-1

▸0037

North Carolina A&T0-1

0014

Final

Aggie StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
VILL	10	20	7	0	37
NORT	7	7	0	0	14

VILLTeam statsNORT

537Total yards172

289Pass64

248Rush108

25First downs8

8-163rd down2-11

1Turnovers0

37:27Possession22:33

Scoring plays

• Q3 4:57VILLJaylan Sanchez 59 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)37–14
• Q2 0:00VILLMatthew Mercurio 19 Yd Field Goal 30–14
• Q2 1:24VILLRayjuon Pringle 9 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)27–14
• Q2 4:56VILLDeeWil Barlee 21 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)20–14
• Q2 10:27NORTKevin White 25 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)13–14
• Q2 14:50VILLMatthew Mercurio 39 Yd Field Goal 13–7
• Q1 6:06VILLJaylan Sanchez 58 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–7
• Q1 8:13NORTTaymon Cooke 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Owen Daffer Kick)3–7
• Q1 8:26VILLMatthew Mercurio 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

VILL −15

Against the number

VILL covered

line VILL −15

What the numbers say

• NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NORT 100%50%VILL 100%

Kickoff138 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NORT (top)VILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

VILL −15

Closing total

46.0

Model line

—

Actual result

VILL 37 – 14 NORT

Leaders

Villanova

• PassConnor Watkins 16/23, 289 YDS, 3 TD
• RushDeeWil Barlee 16 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJaylan Sanchez 6 REC, 158 YDS, 2 TD

North Carolina A&T

• PassKevin White 8/17, 64 YDS
• RushKenji Christian 11 CAR, 64 YDS
• RecNicholas Dobson 4 REC, 52 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

VILL up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 833 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

VILL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSouth Alabama vs Oklahoma State33-7WPennsylvania vs Bucknell37-21WTroy vs Arkansas State37-3WSamford vs The Citadel37-7WOregon vs California63-19

Fourth downs

16 calls

VILL gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.VILL 5/7 · NORT 8/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Villanova vs. North Carolina A&T?

Villanova 37, North Carolina A&T 14.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VILL

NORT

56%

Success rate

33%

0.64

EPA / pass

-0.33

0.12

EPA / rush

0.16

56%

Early-down success

39%

54%

Pass success

24%

57%

Rush success

42%

15%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

35%

Pass rate

47%

4.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.8

VILL

4.1 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

NORT

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

45 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VILL		NORT
537	Total yards	172
289	Passing yards	64
248	Rushing yards	108
25	First downs	8
8-16	3rd down	2-11
0-0	4th down	0-1
16/23	Comp/Att	8/17
12.6	Yards per pass	3.8
4.8	Yards per rush	3.9
1	Turnovers	0
0-0	Penalties	3-20
37:27	Possession	22:33

Fourth downs

16 calls

VILL

5/7 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

NORT

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 0:00 VILL field goal on 4th & 2 at NORT 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VILL 7/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 1/10 scoring drives

VILLFG14 pl, 64 yds· own 28Q1

VILLTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

VILLFG9 pl, 47 yds· own 32Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

VILLPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 12Q2

NORTTD3 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q2

VILLTD9 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

NORTPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 17Q2

VILLTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2

VILLFG7 pl, 47 yds· opp 49Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 26Q3

VILLPUNT9 pl, 34 yds· own 23Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 9Q3

VILLTD3 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 36Q3

VILLPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

NORTMISS9 pl, 51 yds· own 26Q3

VILLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 32Q4

VILLFUM5 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q4

NORTDOWNS10 pl, 48 yds· own 20Q4

VILLEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 32Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 4:57VILLJaylan Sanchez 59 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)37–14
• Q2 0:00VILLMatthew Mercurio 19 Yd Field Goal 30–14
• Q2 1:24VILLRayjuon Pringle 9 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)27–14
• Q2 4:56VILLDeeWil Barlee 21 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)20–14
• Q2 10:27NORTKevin White 25 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)13–14
• Q2 14:50VILLMatthew Mercurio 39 Yd Field Goal 13–7
• Q1 6:06VILLJaylan Sanchez 58 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–7
• Q1 8:13NORTTaymon Cooke 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Owen Daffer Kick)3–7
• Q1 8:26VILLMatthew Mercurio 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →