UTSA vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsHOU
- Q4 5:42UTSAJoshua Cephus 20 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Tate Sandell Kick)14–17
- Q3 3:54HOUMatthew Golden 6 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:00HOUJack Martin 31 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:26UTSAKevorian Barnes 4 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:54HOUJoseph Manjack IV 8 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTSA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassFrank Harris 18/36, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushKevorian Barnes 16 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoshua Cephus 9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDonovan Smith 22/34, 233 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTony Mathis Jr. 8 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecSam Brown Jr. 6 REC, 106 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,139 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:42UTSA +27%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
- Q3 3:54HOU +21%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q4 5:35HOU +19%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the HOU 15
- Q1 3:26UTSA +18%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
- Q1 6:54HOU +18%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q2 0:00HOU +10%
Jack Martin 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Houston?
UTSA 14, Houston 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| UTSA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 417 | Total yards | 334 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/36 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-64 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 29:47 | Possession | 30:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:26 UTSA punt on 4th & 8 at HOU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:42UTSAJoshua Cephus 20 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Tate Sandell Kick)14–17
- Q3 3:54HOUMatthew Golden 6 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:00HOUJack Martin 31 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:26UTSAKevorian Barnes 4 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:54HOUJoseph Manjack IV 8 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1579, UTSA Elo 1605 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -1.4 (55% to win) — 2.9 points clear of HOU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTSA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | -8.5 (#95) |
| -3 / -2 | offense / defense | -3 / +6 |
| 2.53 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 2.78 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →