UCF vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsKU
- Q4 0:53KUDylan McDuffie 1 Yd Run (Owen Piepergerdes Kick)22–51
- Q4 10:09UCFRandy Pittman 23 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Colton Boomer Kick)22–44
- Q4 11:47KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 7 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)15–44
- Q4 13:55UCFRJ Harvey 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)15–37
- Q3 7:02UCFDemari Henderson Defensive PAT Conversion8–37
- Q3 7:02KUDylan McDuffie 1 Yd Run6–37
- Q3 13:01UCFAlec Holler 13 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q3 14:48KUDevin Neal 75 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–31
- Q2 3:26KUTrevor Wilson 82 Yd Punt Return (Seth Keller Kick)0–24
- Q2 6:31KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:43KULawrence Arnold 5 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)0–10
- Q1 3:42KUSeth Keller 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTimmy McClain 12/15, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRJ Harvey 16 CAR, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Baker 4 REC, 85 YDS
- PassJason Bean 8/12, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDevin Neal 12 CAR, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLuke Grimm 2 REC, 41 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:43KU +20%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q2 6:31KU +15%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q2 3:26KU +9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, Trevor Wilson returns for 82 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q1 3:42KU +8%
Seth Keller 25 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Kansas?
UCF 22, Kansas 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCF | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 490 |
| 169 | Passing yards | 91 |
| 202 | Rushing yards | 399 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 6-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 8/12 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 25:35 | Possession | 34:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:45 UCF punt on 4th & 16 at KU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:53KUDylan McDuffie 1 Yd Run (Owen Piepergerdes Kick)22–51
- Q4 10:09UCFRandy Pittman 23 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Colton Boomer Kick)22–44
- Q4 11:47KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 7 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)15–44
- Q4 13:55UCFRJ Harvey 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)15–37
- Q3 7:02UCFDemari Henderson Defensive PAT Conversion8–37
- Q3 7:02KUDylan McDuffie 1 Yd Run6–37
- Q3 13:01UCFAlec Holler 13 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q3 14:48KUDevin Neal 75 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–31
- Q2 3:26KUTrevor Wilson 82 Yd Punt Return (Seth Keller Kick)0–24
- Q2 6:31KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:43KULawrence Arnold 5 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)0–10
- Q1 3:42KUSeth Keller 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1458, UCF Elo 1641 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +4.9 (38% to win) — 2.9 points clear of UCF's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #107 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| UCF | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.4 (#29) | CORE overall | +17.7 (#14) |
| +9 / -2 | offense / defense | +18 / +0 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →