Idaho vs. Lamar: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Idaho

▸0042

Lamar

0017

Final

Provost Umphrey Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
IDAH	14	14	7	7	42
LAMA	0	0	3	14	17

IDAHTeam statsLAMA

497Total yards190

224Pass119

273Rush71

20First downs16

6-93rd down6-13

2Turnovers1

30:16Possession29:44

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:29LAMAVontravious Hall 12 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)42–17
• Q4 4:55LAMAKhalan Griffin 2 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)42–10
• Q4 9:08IDAHJake Cox 15 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Logan Prescott Kick)42–3
• Q3 4:46LAMAChris Esqueda 30 Yd Field Goal 35–3
• Q3 12:39IDAHNick Romano 45 Yd pass from Hayden Hatten (Logan Prescott Kick)35–0
• Q2 0:33IDAHHayden Hatten 20 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Jake Cox Pass to Gevani McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)28–0
• Q2 7:30IDAHAnthony Woods 6 Yd Run (Cameron Pope PAT failed)20–0
• Q1 4:45IDAHAnthony Woods 9 Yd Run (Cameron Pope Kick)14–0
• Q1 7:54IDAHHayden Hatten 6 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Cameron Pope Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

IDAH −25.5

Against the number

LAMA covered

line IDAH −25.5

What the numbers say

• IDAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LAMA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 14.8 vs 3rd & 5.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LAMA 100%50%IDAH 100%

Kickoff64 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

LAMA (top)IDAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LAMA 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

IDAH −25.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

IDAH 42 – 17 LAMA

Leaders

Idaho

• PassGevani McCoy 14/19, 164 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushAnthony Woods 13 CAR, 138 YDS, 2 TD
• RecHayden Hatten 6 REC, 86 YDS, 2 TD

Lamar

• PassRobert Coleman 15/24, 119 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushKhalan Griffin 12 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
• RecAndre Dennis 1 REC, 34 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

57.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

54

Points / snap

1.09

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IDAH up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 530 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

IDAH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WNorth Dakota State vs Maine44-7WColumbia vs Georgetown30-0WEast Carolina vs Gardner-Webb44-0WNorfolk State vs Delaware State44-21WOhio State vs Minnesota37-3

Fourth downs

9 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.IDAH 2/2 · LAMA 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Idaho vs. Lamar?

Idaho 42, Lamar 17.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked LAMA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

IDAH

LAMA

48%

Success rate

39%

1.41

EPA / pass

-0.04

0.15

EPA / rush

0.16

47%

Early-down success

29%

50%

Pass success

29%

46%

Rush success

50%

22%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

39%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

44%

Pass rate

55%

14.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.6

IDAH

14.8 yards to go on 3rd down

23 scrimmage snaps

LAMA

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

31 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

IDAH		LAMA
497	Total yards	190
224	Passing yards	119
273	Rushing yards	71
20	First downs	16
6-9	3rd down	6-13
0-0	4th down	0-0
16/21	Comp/Att	15/24
10.7	Yards per pass	5.0
7.6	Yards per rush	2.3
2	Turnovers	1
8-101	Penalties	5-35
30:16	Possession	29:44

Fourth downs

9 calls

IDAH

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

LAMA

6/7 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

IDAH 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →LAMA 3/11 scoring drives

IDAHTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

LAMAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 27Q1

IDAHTD4 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

LAMAUncateg4 pl, 17 yds· own 28Q1

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 24Q1

LAMAPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 36Q1

IDAHTD11 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q2

LAMAPUNT11 pl, 29 yds· own 21Q2

IDAHTD5 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2

LAMAEND2 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

IDAHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 32Q3

LAMAINT4 pl, 25 yds· own 18Q3

IDAHTD2 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q3

LAMAPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3

LAMAFG10 pl, 37 yds· midfieldQ3

IDAHPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 17Q3

IDAHFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

LAMAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 30Q4

IDAHTD6 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

LAMATD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

LAMATD5 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q4

IDAHUncateg7 pl, -2 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:29LAMAVontravious Hall 12 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)42–17
• Q4 4:55LAMAKhalan Griffin 2 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)42–10
• Q4 9:08IDAHJake Cox 15 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Logan Prescott Kick)42–3
• Q3 4:46LAMAChris Esqueda 30 Yd Field Goal 35–3
• Q3 12:39IDAHNick Romano 45 Yd pass from Hayden Hatten (Logan Prescott Kick)35–0
• Q2 0:33IDAHHayden Hatten 20 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Jake Cox Pass to Gevani McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)28–0
• Q2 7:30IDAHAnthony Woods 6 Yd Run (Cameron Pope PAT failed)20–0
• Q1 4:45IDAHAnthony Woods 9 Yd Run (Cameron Pope Kick)14–0
• Q1 7:54IDAHHayden Hatten 6 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Cameron Pope Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →