Fresno State vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsPUR
- Q4 0:59FRESErik Brooks 22 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)39–35
- Q4 4:36PURDevin Mockobee 11 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)32–35
- Q4 13:44FRESMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)32–28
- Q3 6:44FRESJaelen Gill 18 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Mikey Keene Pass to Jalen Moss for Two-Point Conversion)25–28
- Q3 14:49PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ben Freehill Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 52 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 9:05PURDeion Burks 17 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)14–21
- Q2 12:29FRESJalen Moss 8 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:57PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:26FRESErik Brooks 29 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:40PURDeion Burks 84 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMikey Keene 31/44, 366 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushElijah Gilliam 20 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecErik Brooks 9 REC, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- PassHudson Card 17/30, 254 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDevin Mockobee 16 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeion Burks 4 REC, 152 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:59FRES +73%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q4 4:36PUR +41%
Devin Mockobee run for 11 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
- Q4 13:44FRES +34%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q3 6:44FRES +24%
M. Keene pass to J. Gill for 18 yds for a TD (M. Keene pass to J. Moss for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 14:49PUR +23%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ben Freehill Kick)
- Q2 9:05PUR +22%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 17 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Purdue?
Fresno State 39, Purdue 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| FRES | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 487 | Total yards | 363 |
| 371 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 109 |
| 27 | First downs | 19 |
| 11-17 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 32/45 | Comp/Att | 17/30 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-66 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 36:33 | Possession | 23:27 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:55 FRES punt on 4th & 2 at PUR 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:59FRESErik Brooks 22 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)39–35
- Q4 4:36PURDevin Mockobee 11 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)32–35
- Q4 13:44FRESMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)32–28
- Q3 6:44FRESJaelen Gill 18 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Mikey Keene Pass to Jalen Moss for Two-Point Conversion)25–28
- Q3 14:49PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ben Freehill Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 52 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 9:05PURDeion Burks 17 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)14–21
- Q2 12:29FRESJalen Moss 8 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:57PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:26FRESErik Brooks 29 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:40PURDeion Burks 84 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1473, FRES Elo 1677 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +5.8 (36% to win) — 10.3 points clear of FRES's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FRES | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.7 (#81) | CORE overall | -2.3 (#74) |
| -3 / +1 | offense / defense | +1 / +4 |
| 2.66 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +16 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →