Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsTOL
- Q4 0:59EMUDontae McMillan 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)23–49
- Q4 4:27EMUJaylon Jackson 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)16–49
- Q4 10:48TOLPeny Boone 2 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)9–49
- Q3 4:02EMUElijah Jackson-Anderson 28 Yd pass from Samson Evans (Jesus Gomez PAT failed)9–42
- Q3 6:43TOLPeny Boone 7 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–42
- Q2 0:00EMUJesus Gomez 25 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q2 4:19TOLJacquez Stuart 5 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:36TOLJunior Vandeross III 11 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:53TOLJunior Vandeross III 28 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:34TOLPeny Boone 9 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:56TOLDalton Andrews 10 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- EMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassAustin Smith 9/24, 86 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaylon Jackson 16 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIhson Jackson-Anderson 1 REC, 28 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDequan Finn 23/27, 407 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushPeny Boone 11 CAR, 52 YDS, 3 TD
- RecPeny Boone 4 REC, 116 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 456 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:56TOL +12%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Dalton Andrews for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
- Q1 1:34TOL +7%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo?
Eastern Michigan 23, Toledo 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| EMU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 508 |
| 114 | Passing yards | 407 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 18 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-7 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/25 | Comp/Att | 23/27 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 15.1 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-68 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 28:51 | Possession | 31:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:30 EMU punt on 4th & 1 at EMU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:59EMUDontae McMillan 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)23–49
- Q4 4:27EMUJaylon Jackson 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)16–49
- Q4 10:48TOLPeny Boone 2 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)9–49
- Q3 4:02EMUElijah Jackson-Anderson 28 Yd pass from Samson Evans (Jesus Gomez PAT failed)9–42
- Q3 6:43TOLPeny Boone 7 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)3–42
- Q2 0:00EMUJesus Gomez 25 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q2 4:19TOLJacquez Stuart 5 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:36TOLJunior Vandeross III 11 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:53TOLJunior Vandeross III 28 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:34TOLPeny Boone 9 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:56TOLDalton Andrews 10 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1520, EMU Elo 1292 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -11.5 (78% to win) — 8.0 points clear of EMU's market line of -19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 37–13 · Toledo has won 3 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| EMU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.8 (#131) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#32) |
| -17 / +8 | offense / defense | +7 / -3 |
| 1.47 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →