Buffalo vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsWIS
- Q4 6:38WISBraelon Allen 22 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)17–38
- Q4 7:43BUFCole Harrity 3 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)17–31
- Q4 13:45WISNathanial Vakos 37 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q3 2:37WISBraelon Allen 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–28
- Q3 8:28WISChez Mellusi 89 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:07BUFAlex McNulty 53 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:00WISChimere Dike 29 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:07BUFCole Harrity 7 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:16WISChez Mellusi 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCole Snyder 26/41, 194 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMike Washington Jr. 12 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecDarrell Harding Jr. 1 REC, 51 YDS
- PassTanner Mordecai 24/31, 189 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushChez Mellusi 13 CAR, 157 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWill Pauling 5 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:28WIS +18%
Chez Mellusi run for 89 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q2 1:00WIS +16%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Chimere Dike for 29 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q1 5:07BUF +13%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q1 7:16WIS +12%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q2 0:07BUF +7%
Alex McNulty 53 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Wisconsin?
Buffalo 17, Wisconsin 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
| BUF | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 503 |
| 194 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 122 | Rushing yards | 314 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/41 | Comp/Att | 24/31 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 7.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 29:34 | Possession | 30:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:21 BUF punt on 4th & 2 at BUF 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:38WISBraelon Allen 22 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)17–38
- Q4 7:43BUFCole Harrity 3 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)17–31
- Q4 13:45WISNathanial Vakos 37 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q3 2:37WISBraelon Allen 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–28
- Q3 8:28WISChez Mellusi 89 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:07BUFAlex McNulty 53 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:00WISChimere Dike 29 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:07BUFCole Harrity 7 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:16WISChez Mellusi 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1637, BUF Elo 1424 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -10.9 (77% to win) — 16.1 points clear of BUF's market line of -27. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BUF | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.4 (#107) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#38) |
| -16 / -2 | offense / defense | +1 / -7 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.24 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →