Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsNEB
- Q4 0:04NIUChristion Carter 4 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Billy Dozier Pass to Billy Dozier for Two-Point Conversion)11–35
- Q4 3:23NEBAnthony Grant 11 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–35
- Q4 8:19NEBHeinrich Haarberg 20 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–28
- Q3 1:00NEBGabe Ervin Jr. 3 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–21
- Q2 3:15NEBThomas Fidone II 16 Yd pass from Heinrich Haarberg (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:08NIUJake Seibert 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:39NEBBilly Kemp IV 10 Yd pass from Heinrich Haarberg (Tristan Alvano Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRocky Lombardi 11/28, 73 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAntario Brown 8 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecDavis Patterson 2 REC, 30 YDS
- PassHeinrich Haarberg 14/24, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- RushHeinrich Haarberg 21 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecThomas Fidone II 4 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:39NEB +14%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 10 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)
- Q2 3:15NEB +14%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 16 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)
- Q1 3:08NIU +6%
Jake Seibert 30 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska?
Northern Illinois 11, Nebraska 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| NIU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 149 | Total yards | 382 |
| 123 | Passing yards | 158 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 224 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/36 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 5-70 |
| 23:43 | Possession | 36:17 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:07 NIU punt on 4th & 1 at NIU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:04NIUChristion Carter 4 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Billy Dozier Pass to Billy Dozier for Two-Point Conversion)11–35
- Q4 3:23NEBAnthony Grant 11 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–35
- Q4 8:19NEBHeinrich Haarberg 20 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–28
- Q3 1:00NEBGabe Ervin Jr. 3 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–21
- Q2 3:15NEBThomas Fidone II 16 Yd pass from Heinrich Haarberg (Tristan Alvano Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:08NIUJake Seibert 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:39NEBBilly Kemp IV 10 Yd pass from Heinrich Haarberg (Tristan Alvano Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1430, NIU Elo 1309 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -7.2 (70% to win) — 4.3 points clear of NIU's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#84) | CORE overall | +5.0 (#45) |
| -2 / +3 | offense / defense | -3 / -8 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 1.52 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →