Baylor vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsCIN
- Q4 5:03CINXzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion)32–29
- Q4 7:01BAYIsaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal 32–21
- Q4 14:20CINMyles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)29–21
- Q3 5:00BAYIsaiah Hankins 46 Yd Field Goal 29–14
- Q3 12:17BAYJake Roberts 6 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q2 5:59CINMyles Montgomery 38 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)20–14
- Q2 7:18BAYIsaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 12:09BAYByron Vaughns 15 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–7
- Q2 12:16BAYBlake Shapen 3 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:55CINXzavier Henderson 4 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:55BAYIsaiah Hankins 54 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Shapen 25/42, 316 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDominic Richardson 8 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecKetron Jackson Jr. 5 REC, 130 YDS
- PassEmory Jones 19/30, 162 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCorey Kiner 15 CAR, 129 YDS
- RecXzavier Henderson 8 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,696 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:03CIN +35%
Xzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 1:25BAY +26%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CIN 27 for a 1ST down
- Q4 2:19CIN +26%
Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the CIN 17 for a 1ST down
- Q4 5:03BAY +21%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete
- Q2 12:16BAY +20%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 14:55CIN +19%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Cincinnati?
Baylor 32, Cincinnati 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BAY | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 450 |
| 316 | Passing yards | 162 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 288 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 25/42 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-20 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 31:13 | Possession | 28:47 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:03CINXzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion)32–29
- Q4 7:01BAYIsaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal 32–21
- Q4 14:20CINMyles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)29–21
- Q3 5:00BAYIsaiah Hankins 46 Yd Field Goal 29–14
- Q3 12:17BAYJake Roberts 6 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q2 5:59CINMyles Montgomery 38 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)20–14
- Q2 7:18BAYIsaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 12:09BAYByron Vaughns 15 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–7
- Q2 12:16BAYBlake Shapen 3 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:55CINXzavier Henderson 4 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:55BAYIsaiah Hankins 54 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1522, BAY Elo 1459 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -4.9 (64% to win) — 2.4 points clear of CIN's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BAY | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#115) | CORE overall | -7.4 (#93) |
| -4 / +12 | offense / defense | -1 / +7 |
| 1.53 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.97 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →