Miami vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsGT
- Q4 0:36GTJamie Felix 7 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Gavin Stewart Kick)35–14
- Q4 2:36MIAKamren Kinchens 99 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick)35–7
- Q4 4:29MIAJaylan Knighton 2 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)28–7
- Q4 7:52MIAColbie Young 8 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Andres Borregales Kick)21–7
- Q2 0:30GTNate McCollum 9 Yd pass from Zach Pyron (Gavin Stewart Kick)14–7
- Q2 9:26MIAJaleel Skinner 4 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Andres Borregales Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:44MIAWill Mallory 22 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Andres Borregales Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJacurri Brown 14/19, 136 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJaylan Knighton 16 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecFrank Ladson Jr. 2 REC, 42 YDS
- PassZach Gibson 12/21, 120 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushZach Pyron 8 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecNate McCollum 8 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:44MIA +18%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Will Mallory for 22 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q2 0:30GT +16%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q2 9:26MIA +15%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q4 15:00MIA +10%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MiaFl 47
- Q4 11:46MIA +10%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 49
- Q4 7:52MIA +10%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Georgia Tech?
Miami 35, Georgia Tech 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| MIA | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Total yards | 363 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 21 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/19 | Comp/Att | 24/43 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 9-79 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 35:46 | Possession | 24:14 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:48 GT punt on 4th & 3 at GT 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36GTJamie Felix 7 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Gavin Stewart Kick)35–14
- Q4 2:36MIAKamren Kinchens 99 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick)35–7
- Q4 4:29MIAJaylan Knighton 2 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)28–7
- Q4 7:52MIAColbie Young 8 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Andres Borregales Kick)21–7
- Q2 0:30GTNate McCollum 9 Yd pass from Zach Pyron (Gavin Stewart Kick)14–7
- Q2 9:26MIAJaleel Skinner 4 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Andres Borregales Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:44MIAWill Mallory 22 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Andres Borregales Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1250, MIA Elo 1339 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT +1.2 (48% to win) — 3.2 points clear of MIA's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #105 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 15–14 · Georgia Tech has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| MIA | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.3 (#73) | CORE overall | -5.7 (#87) |
| -6 / -4 | offense / defense | -10 / -4 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 1.22 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 2.26 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →