Buffalo vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 12:10OHIOMiles Cross 9 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)24–45
- Q4 13:16OHIOCam Dorsey 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)24–38
- Q3 1:46BUFMike Washington 2 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)24–31
- Q3 10:05OHIOMiles Cross 2 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)17–31
- Q3 14:00BUFKeyshawn Cobb 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:20BUFJustin Marshall 12 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)10–24
- Q2 4:03OHIOSam Wiglusz 5 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)3–24
- Q2 12:05BUFAlex McNulty 28 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 1:38OHIOJacoby Jones 5 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:01OHIONathanial Vakos 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:22OHIOSam Wiglusz 16 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BUF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OHIO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassCole Snyder 25/49, 238 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMike Washington Jr. 6 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecJustin Marshall 6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKurtis Rourke 20/29, 317 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushJake Neatherton 13 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam Wiglusz 6 REC, 131 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:05OHIO +19%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 2 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q1 11:22OHIO +18%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 16 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q3 14:00BUF +16%
Keyshawn Cobb 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)
- Q3 1:46BUF +16%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q1 1:38OHIO +15%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q4 13:16OHIO +14%
Cam Dorsey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Ohio?
Buffalo 24, Ohio 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 474 |
| 238 | Passing yards | 317 |
| 22 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/49 | Comp/Att | 20/29 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 0.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-38 | Penalties | 7-51 |
| 29:46 | Possession | 30:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:46 BUF go for it on 4th & 13 at BUF 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:10OHIOMiles Cross 9 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)24–45
- Q4 13:16OHIOCam Dorsey 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)24–38
- Q3 1:46BUFMike Washington 2 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)24–31
- Q3 10:05OHIOMiles Cross 2 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)17–31
- Q3 14:00BUFKeyshawn Cobb 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:20BUFJustin Marshall 12 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)10–24
- Q2 4:03OHIOSam Wiglusz 5 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)3–24
- Q2 12:05BUFAlex McNulty 28 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 1:38OHIOJacoby Jones 5 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:01OHIONathanial Vakos 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:22OHIOSam Wiglusz 16 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1348, BUF Elo 1486 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO +3.1 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #99 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Ohio leads 19–10 · Ohio has won 4 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| BUF | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 (#90) | CORE overall | -6.9 (#89) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | +2 / +9 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.18 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →