Duquesne vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Duquesne0-1

▸0028

Ohio0-1

0026

Final

Peden Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
DUQU	8	3	7	10	28
OHIO	13	0	0	13	26

DUQUTeam statsOHIO

362Total yards307

194Pass168

168Rush139

26First downs15

7-163rd down1-7

0Turnovers0

41:02Possession18:58

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:09OHIOTy Walton 3 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–26
• Q4 2:46DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 27 Yd Field Goal 28–20
• Q4 10:45OHIOKurtis Rourke 2 Yd Run (Ben Johnson Kick)25–20
• Q4 14:55DUQUJoey Isabella 3 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)25–13
• Q3 9:41DUQUDarius Perrantes 1 Yd Run (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)18–13
• Q2 0:49DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 21 Yd Field Goal 11–13
• Q1 0:00DUQUTeam Safety8–13
• Q1 4:19DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 38 Yd Field Goal 6–13
• Q1 10:25OHIODe'Montre Tuggle 15 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick)3–13
• Q1 10:56DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 23 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q1 14:47OHIODe'Montre Tuggle 83 Yd Kickoff Return (Stephen Johnson PAT failed)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

OHIO −28.5

Against the number

DUQU covered

line OHIO −28.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

OHIO 100%50%DUQU 100%

Kickoff152 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

OHIO (top)DUQU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OHIO 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

OHIO −28.5

Closing total

49.0

Model line

—

Actual result

DUQU 28 – 26 OHIO

consensus, liveOHIO −28.5total 49.0

Leaders

Duquesne

• PassDarius Perrantes 23/34, 194 YDS, 1 TD
• RushGarrett Owens 23 CAR, 82 YDS
• RecCyrus Holder 4 REC, 55 YDS

Ohio

• PassKurtis Rourke 14/22, 168 YDS, 1 TD
• RushO'Shaan Allison 12 CAR, 76 YDS
• RecCameron Odom 3 REC, 74 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DUQU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

72%

DUQU went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

LAkron vs Temple21-24WMiami vs Texas A&M48-33WStephen F. Austin vs Alcorn State38-10WMiami (OH) vs Cincinnati38-24LApp State vs Wyoming19-30

Fourth downs

14 calls

DUQU gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.DUQU 6/8 · OHIO 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Duquesne vs. Ohio?

Duquesne 28, Ohio 26.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DUQU

OHIO

43%

Success rate

42%

0.28

EPA / pass

-0.08

0.12

EPA / rush

0.40

40%

Early-down success

44%

46%

Pass success

36%

40%

Rush success

48%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

51%

Pass rate

52%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.4

DUQU

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

87 scrimmage snaps

OHIO

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DUQU		OHIO
362	Total yards	307
194	Passing yards	168
168	Rushing yards	139
26	First downs	15
7-16	3rd down	1-7
2-2	4th down	1-1
23/34	Comp/Att	14/22
5.7	Yards per pass	7.6
3.7	Yards per rush	5.8
0	Turnovers	0
8-46	Penalties	12-112
41:02	Possession	18:58

Fourth downs

14 calls

DUQU

6/8 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

OHIO

3/4 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 6:08 OHIO punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DUQU 6/9 scoring drives← own end zone →OHIO 4/9 scoring drives

DUQUFG8 pl, 62 yds· own 32Q1

OHIOTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUFG15 pl, 56 yds· own 24Q1

OHIOPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q1

DUQUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 33Q1

OHIOSAF1 pl, 0 yds· own 1Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -19 yds· own 31Q2

OHIOMISS7 pl, 39 yds· own 48Q2

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 15Q2

OHIOPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 42Q2

DUQUFG11 pl, 93 yds· own 4Q2

OHIOEND4 pl, 19 yds· own 34Q2

DUQUDOWNS10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

OHIOPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3

DUQUTD12 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

OHIOTD10 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4

DUQUFG15 pl, 66 yds· own 25Q4

OHIOINT12 pl, 56 yds· own 33Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:09OHIOTy Walton 3 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–26
• Q4 2:46DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 27 Yd Field Goal 28–20
• Q4 10:45OHIOKurtis Rourke 2 Yd Run (Ben Johnson Kick)25–20
• Q4 14:55DUQUJoey Isabella 3 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)25–13
• Q3 9:41DUQUDarius Perrantes 1 Yd Run (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)18–13
• Q2 0:49DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 21 Yd Field Goal 11–13
• Q1 0:00DUQUTeam Safety8–13
• Q1 4:19DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 38 Yd Field Goal 6–13
• Q1 10:25OHIODe'Montre Tuggle 15 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick)3–13
• Q1 10:56DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 23 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q1 14:47OHIODe'Montre Tuggle 83 Yd Kickoff Return (Stephen Johnson PAT failed)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Duquesne were +28.5 — a 4% shot

#27 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #4 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.

The 2021 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →