Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsCLT
- Q4 0:31CLTMicaleous Elder 14 Yd pass from Dom Shoffner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–19
- Q4 2:22WKUC.J. Jones 5 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)37–13
- Q4 5:01CLTCameron Dollar 30 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–13
- Q4 14:44WKUBrayden Narveson 49 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 3:16WKUMitchell Tinsley 3 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)27–7
- Q3 7:18WKUBrayden Narveson 46 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q3 9:30CLTMicaleous Elder 5 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Jonathan Cruz Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:19WKUJordan Meredith 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–0
- Q2 14:44WKUA.J. Brathwaite Jr. 2 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)10–0
- Q1 2:47WKUBrayden Narveson 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WKU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassTyrrell Pigrome 18/27, 218 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGaej Walker 19 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecDakota Thomas 5 REC, 78 YDS
- PassChris Reynolds 14/34, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTre Harbison 16 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecVictor Tucker 8 REC, 111 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:44WKU +19%
A.J. Brathwaite Jr. 2 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)
- Q2 0:19WKU +13%
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd Gaej Walker fumbled, forced by Tyriq Harris, recovered by WKent Jordan Meredith for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q3 9:30CLT +12%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
- Q1 2:47WKU +9%
Brayden Narveson 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:18WKU +7%
Brayden Narveson 46 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:30WKU +7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 29 yds to the CHARLOTTE 46 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte?
Western Kentucky 37, Charlotte 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 308 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 218 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 18/27 | Comp/Att | 15/35 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 6-48 |
| 29:59 | Possession | 30:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:17 WKU punt on 4th & 3 at WKU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31CLTMicaleous Elder 14 Yd pass from Dom Shoffner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–19
- Q4 2:22WKUC.J. Jones 5 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)37–13
- Q4 5:01CLTCameron Dollar 30 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–13
- Q4 14:44WKUBrayden Narveson 49 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 3:16WKUMitchell Tinsley 3 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)27–7
- Q3 7:18WKUBrayden Narveson 46 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q3 9:30CLTMicaleous Elder 5 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Jonathan Cruz Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:19WKUJordan Meredith 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–0
- Q2 14:44WKUA.J. Brathwaite Jr. 2 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)10–0
- Q1 2:47WKUBrayden Narveson 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1340, WKU Elo 1368 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT -1.3 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #89 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| WKU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#94) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#105) |
| -13 / -3 | offense / defense | -5 / +9 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 2.20 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.83 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →