Kentucky vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsTENN
- Q4 10:54UKChristopher Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)34–7
- Q3 1:02UKMatt Ruffolo 27 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q3 7:24UKAllen Dailey Jr. 1 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Matt Ruffolo Kick)24–7
- Q2 1:36TENNTy Chandler 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)17–7
- Q2 6:18UKMatt Ruffolo 30 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 10:33UKJamin Davis 85 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)14–0
- Q2 12:47UKKelvin Joseph 41 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TENN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassTerry Wilson 12/15, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChris Rodriguez Jr. 13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Ali 4 REC, 38 YDS
- PassJarrett Guarantano 14/21, 88 YDS, 2 INT
- RushEric Gray 24 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecBrandon Johnson 4 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:47UK +17%
Kelvin Joseph 41 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
- Q2 10:33UK +15%
Jamin Davis 85 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
- Q2 1:36TENN +12%
Ty Chandler 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)
- Q3 7:24UK +11%
Allen Dailey Jr. 1 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Tennessee?
Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
| UK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total yards | 287 |
| 107 | Passing yards | 112 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 175 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/16 | Comp/Att | 15/26 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 6-63 |
| 33:59 | Possession | 26:01 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:13 TENN punt on 4th & 1 at TENN 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:54UKChristopher Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)34–7
- Q3 1:02UKMatt Ruffolo 27 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q3 7:24UKAllen Dailey Jr. 1 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Matt Ruffolo Kick)24–7
- Q2 1:36TENNTy Chandler 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)17–7
- Q2 6:18UKMatt Ruffolo 30 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 10:33UKJamin Davis 85 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)14–0
- Q2 12:47UKKelvin Joseph 41 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1581, UK Elo 1671 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN +1.2 (48% to win) — 7.7 points clear of UK's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #64 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #22 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Tennessee leads 84–25–9 · Tennessee has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| UK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 (#66) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#72) |
| -6 / -5 | offense / defense | -5 / -3 |
| 1.75 | points / drive | 1.78 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →