Wake Forest vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsDUKE
- Q4 4:20WAKEKendall Hinton 11 Yd Run (Zach Murphy Kick)59–7
- Q4 10:15WAKECade Carney 12 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)52–7
- Q3 1:24WAKESage Surratt 9 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)45–7
- Q3 9:54WAKEAlex Bachman 6 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:00WAKENick Sciba 20 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 4:10WAKENasir Greer 20 Yd Interception Return (Nick Sciba Kick)28–7
- Q2 12:48DUKEDeon Jackson 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:29WAKEScotty Washington 9 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:02WAKEGreg Dortch 15 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:11WAKECade Carney 5 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJamie Newman 18/23, 177 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCade Carney 31 CAR, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RecGreg Dortch 10 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDaniel Jones 17/36, 145 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushNicodem Pierre 2 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecDeon Jackson 7 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:02WAKE +19%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 15 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q1 1:29WAKE +18%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q1 12:11WAKE +17%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q2 12:48DUKE +15%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
- Q2 4:10WAKE +13%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted for a TD Nasir Greer return for 20 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-89 Yards) to the WFrst 8 (Nick Sciba KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Duke?
Wake Forest 59, Duke 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 517 | Total yards | 251 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 145 |
| 340 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 29 | First downs | 16 |
| 12-18 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/23 | Comp/Att | 17/36 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 37:21 | Possession | 22:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:07 WAKE punt on 4th & 1 at WAKE 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:20WAKEKendall Hinton 11 Yd Run (Zach Murphy Kick)59–7
- Q4 10:15WAKECade Carney 12 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)52–7
- Q3 1:24WAKESage Surratt 9 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)45–7
- Q3 9:54WAKEAlex Bachman 6 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:00WAKENick Sciba 20 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 4:10WAKENasir Greer 20 Yd Interception Return (Nick Sciba Kick)28–7
- Q2 12:48DUKEDeon Jackson 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:29WAKEScotty Washington 9 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:02WAKEGreg Dortch 15 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:11WAKECade Carney 5 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1615, WAKE Elo 1403 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -10.9 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #44 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Duke leads 60–40–2 · Duke has won 4 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7 (#70) | CORE overall | -1.3 (#73) |
| -2 / -1 | offense / defense | -3 / -2 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →